Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #63,308 of 84,120 nationally
River Oaks Eviction Risk: Lower , Norfolk
Tract 51710006200 · Norfolk city, VA · pop 3,057 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
51710006200 is a census tract in the River Oaks area of Norfolk, VA. It scores 3.2/10 for landlords. The severe-burden share is 31%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3.2
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 71%
Tract context
Occupied units1,264
Renter share28.8%
SVI overall0.78
Poverty rate9.4%
Median income$75,256
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
25
th percentile
Low
Within county
25
th percentile
Low
Within state
23
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Norfolk and the region
Centroid at 36.8713, -76.2162 · click any tract to drill in
Why River Oaks scores 3.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Norfolk
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.4% poverty · this tract
2.3
Supply constraint
$1,150 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Norfolk
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Norfolk
5.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Norfolk
5.0
How River Oaks compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 78
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 77%Socioeconomic
- 34%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 88%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 14%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 424Total filings over 2 yrs
- 48.62%Avg annual filing rate
- 45.5%Peak (2016)
- 217Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within River Oaks. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.6%Housing insecurity
- 9.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.7%Food insecurity
- 13.9%SNAP enrollment
- 9.5%Transit barriers
- 10.0%No health insurance
- 18.1%Frequent mental distress
- 32.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in River Oaks
63% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Norfolk City average of 50.4%. Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1.8/10.
Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 2.3/10. Court records carry 424 eviction filings across 2 observed years.
Against the Norfolk City average of 4.1, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points. Average gross rent is $1,150, 13% below the Norfolk average.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 45.5% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Norfolk. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 48.6% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 25th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8/10.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51710006200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51710006200?
Census tract 51710006200 in the River Oaks neighborhood scores 3.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51710006200?
Median gross rent is $1,150/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51710006200?
9.4% of residents in tract 51710006200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,057.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51710006200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 77th, household 34th, minority 68th, housing 88th.
Q5
Is tract 51710006200 considered part of River Oaks?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51710006200 fall within River Oaks (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51710006200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 424 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51710006200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 48.62% of renter households, peaking at 45.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51710006200 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51710006200 compare to Norfolk overall?
Tract 51710006200 scores 3.2/10, lower than the parent city of Norfolk at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Norfolk eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51710006200 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Norfolk
Top eight tracts in Norfolk ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Willard Park
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Denby Park
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Brambleton
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Harbor Vista
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Huntersville
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Campostella Heights
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Miller Heights
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Edgewater
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
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