Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #8,912 of 84,120 nationally
Regents Crest Eviction Risk: Elevated , Winchester
Tract 51840000102 · Winchester city, VA · pop 3,510 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
In the Regents Crest area of Winchester, census tract 51840000102 scores 7.2/10 for eviction risk. It lands near the 96th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 65% of renter households, a severe level, and 37% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,101 monthly, set against $38,976 in average yearly household income, roughly 34% of income at the averages. Renters make up 76% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
6.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 49%
Stable renters 27%
Owners 24%
Tract context
Occupied units1,493
Renter share76.0%
SVI overall0.92
Poverty rate43.8%
Median income$38,976
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
99
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Winchester and the region
Centroid at 39.1874, -78.1586 · click any tract to drill in
Why Regents Crest scores 6.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Winchester
6.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
43.8% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$1,101 rent vs county FMR
2.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Winchester
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Winchester
9.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Winchester
7.2
How Regents Crest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 92
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 93%Socioeconomic
- 91%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 72%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Regents Crest. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 24.3%Housing insecurity
- 17.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 33.2%Food insecurity
- 33.4%SNAP enrollment
- 17.3%Transit barriers
- 19.7%No health insurance
- 22.0%Frequent mental distress
- 43.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Regents Crest
The heaviest input here is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Winchester eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Winchester City County average of 6.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 24.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 17.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 92nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51840000102
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51840000102?
Census tract 51840000102 in the Regents Crest neighborhood scores 6.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51840000102?
Median gross rent is $1,101/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51840000102?
43.8% of residents in tract 51840000102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,510.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51840000102?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 92th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 93th, household 91th, minority 69th, housing 72th.
Q5
Is tract 51840000102 considered part of Regents Crest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51840000102 fall within Regents Crest (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51840000102 struggle to pay rent?
About 24.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 17.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51840000102 compare to Winchester overall?
Tract 51840000102 scores 6.3/10, higher than the parent city of Winchester at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Winchester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Winchester
Top eight tracts in Winchester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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