Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally
Regents Crest Eviction Risk: Elevated , Winchester
Tract 51840000102 · Winchester city, VA · pop 3,510 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
51840000102 is a census tract in the Regents Crest area of Winchester, VA. It scores 7.3/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,510 residents. 65% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Winchester City average of 46.5%.
Risk score
7.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 49%
Stable renters 27%
Owners 24%
Tract context
Occupied units1,493
Renter share76.0%
SVI overall0.92
Poverty rate43.8%
Median income$38,976
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
99
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Winchester and the region
Centroid at 39.1874, -78.1586 · click any tract to drill in
Why Regents Crest scores 7.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Winchester
6.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
43.8% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$1,101 rent vs county FMR
2.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Winchester
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Winchester
9.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Winchester
7.2
How Regents Crest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 92
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 93%Socioeconomic
- 91%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 72%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Regents Crest. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 24.3%Housing insecurity
- 17.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 33.2%Food insecurity
- 33.4%SNAP enrollment
- 17.3%Transit barriers
- 19.7%No health insurance
- 22.0%Frequent mental distress
- 43.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Regents Crest
The severe-burden share is 37%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The score leans hardest on economic stress at 10/10.
The poverty rate is 44%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.6/10. SNAP participation runs 33.4% against 15.2% nationally.
76% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Set annual rent against average income of $38,976 and the ratio lands at 34%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.7/10. Food insecurity runs 33.2% against 17.8% nationally. It sits 1.4 points above the Winchester City average of 5.9.
Average gross rent is $1,101, 16% below the Winchester average. That is riskier than roughly 87% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.3/10.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.1 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51840000102
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51840000102?
Census tract 51840000102 in the Regents Crest neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51840000102?
Median gross rent is $1,101/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51840000102?
43.8% of residents in tract 51840000102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,510.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51840000102?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 92th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 93th, household 91th, minority 69th, housing 72th.
Q5
Is tract 51840000102 considered part of Regents Crest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51840000102 fall within Regents Crest (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51840000102 struggle to pay rent?
About 24.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 17.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51840000102 compare to Winchester overall?
Tract 51840000102 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of Winchester at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Winchester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Winchester
Top eight tracts in Winchester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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