Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally
Regents Crest Eviction Risk: Moderate , Winchester
Tract 51840000201 · Winchester city, VA · pop 3,697 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Tract 51840000201 sits in the Regents Crest area of Winchester eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.7/10. Population here is 3,697. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.6/10.
Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 23%
Owners 53%
Tract context
Occupied units1,667
Renter share47.5%
SVI overall0.54
Poverty rate17.5%
Median income$73,259
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
40
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
40
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
91
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Winchester and the region
Centroid at 39.1963, -78.1733 · click any tract to drill in
Why Regents Crest scores 5.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Winchester
6.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.6
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
17.5% poverty · this tract
4.4
Supply constraint
$1,277 rent vs county FMR
3.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Winchester
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Winchester
9.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Winchester
7.2
How Regents Crest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 54
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 46%Socioeconomic
- 54%Household composition
- 41%Racial/ethnic minority
- 61%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Regents Crest. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.5%Housing insecurity
- 7.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.2%Food insecurity
- 11.4%SNAP enrollment
- 7.6%Transit barriers
- 9.4%No health insurance
- 17.0%Frequent mental distress
- 33.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Regents Crest
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.7/10. Severe burden reaches 20%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10. 51% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Winchester City average of 46.5%. That is riskier than roughly 74% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.8/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.5 points hotter. It tracks the Winchester City average of 5.9 closely.
Average gross rent is $1,277, close to the Winchester average. Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $73,259.
48% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51840000201
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51840000201?
Census tract 51840000201 in the Regents Crest neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51840000201?
Median gross rent is $1,277/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51840000201?
17.5% of residents in tract 51840000201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,697.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51840000201?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 54th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 46th, household 54th, minority 41th, housing 61th.
Q5
Is tract 51840000201 considered part of Regents Crest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51840000201 fall within Regents Crest (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51840000201 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51840000201 compare to Winchester overall?
Tract 51840000201 scores 5.7/10, right in line with the parent city of Winchester at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Winchester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Winchester
Top eight tracts in Winchester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related