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Neighborhood · Alexandria, VA

Lincolnia Park Eviction Risk: Elevated

2 census tracts · pop 4,723 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 6.6/10 · range 6.2–7.3

Lincolnia Park takes in 2 census tracts of Alexandria, VA and houses 4,723 people. That produces an Eviction Risk Score of 6.6/10, Elevated tier. 45% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, markedly above the Alexandria rate of 28.3%.

The severe-burden share is 16%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. Pulling the other way is economic stress, at 2.7/10. The 2 tracts inside this boundary do not behave alike. Individual scores run 6.2 to 7.3, a 1.1-point gap wide enough that the area average misleads on any specific address.

That places it #5 of 26 neighborhoods in Alexandria. For a like-for-like read, Beverley Hills and Clover score within a fraction of it. Average gross rent runs $2,012, close to the Alexandria average.

Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $85,286. 50% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.1 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score
6.6
Elevated
2 tracts · population-weighted
Lincolnia Park vs Alexandria How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
44.6% +58%
Alexandria: 28.3%
Average gross rent
$2,012 -4%
Alexandria: $2,089
Average HH income
$85,286 -25%
Alexandria: $113,638
Poverty rate
10.6% +26%
Alexandria: 8.4%
Renter share
49.9% -14%
Alexandria: 57.9%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lincolnia Park and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 6.2–7.3

Why Lincolnia Park scores 6.6

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 8.1–8.1 across tracts
8.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 8.0–8.0 across tracts
8.0
Rent control risk
45% of income on rent · Range 3.5–3.5 across tracts
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
50% renter households · Range 6.5–6.5 across tracts
6.5
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts
5.5
Economic stress
10.6% below poverty line · Range 1.7–4.5 across tracts
2.7
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 3.5–4.0 across tracts
3.7
Risk score comparison

Lincolnia Park vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Lincolnia Park score vs. parent city, state, U.S.6.6Lincolnia ParkNeighborhood5.9Parent cityhost city4.3Stateavg in state5.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

2 tracts in Lincolnia Park

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕ Score↕ Pop↕ % over 30% on rent↕ Average rent↕
51510200108 7.3 1,651 41% $2,093
51510200407 6.2 3,072 47% $1,969
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 34

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 28%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 18%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 64%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 58%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Lincolnia Park

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Lincolnia Park

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Lincolnia Park?

Lincolnia Park scores 6.6/10 (Elevated tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Lincolnia Park compare to Alexandria overall?

Lincolnia Park scores 0.7 points higher than Alexandria overall (5.9/10). Renters spend 45% of income on rent vs 28% citywide. Average rent: $2,012 vs $2,089.
Q3

What is the average rent in Lincolnia Park?

Average gross rent in Lincolnia Park is $2,012/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Lincolnia Park residents are renters?

50% of Lincolnia Park households are renter-occupied (vs 58% in Alexandria). The neighborhood has 4,723 residents.
Q5

Is Lincolnia Park a high social-vulnerability area?

Lincolnia Park sits in the 34th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Lincolnia Park have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Lincolnia Park is census tract 51510200108 (score 7.3/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 6.2 to 7.3, a spread of 1.1 points.
Q7

How safe is Lincolnia Park for landlords?

Lincolnia Park carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (6.6/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Alexandria as a whole (5.9/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Lincolnia Park?

Lincolnia Park has 4,598 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (51.1%), Black (non-Hispanic) (18.7%), Hispanic / Latino (15.3%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Lincolnia Park

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Alexandria

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Lincolnia Park.

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