Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally

Lincolnia Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Alexandria

Tract 51510200108 · Alexandria city, VA · pop 1,651 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

With a score of 7.3/10, tract 51510200108 in the Lincolnia Park area of Alexandria, VA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 1,651. 81% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Risk score

7.3

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 33% Stable renters 48% Owners 19%

Tract context

Occupied units728

Renter share81.3%

SVI overall0.24

Poverty rate17.8%

Median income$75,278

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Alexandria and the region

Centroid at 38.8173, -77.1386 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lincolnia Park scores 7.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Alexandria

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.1

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

17.8% poverty · this tract

4.5

Supply constraint

$2,093 rent vs county FMR

4.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Alexandria

3.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Alexandria

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Alexandria

5.5

How Lincolnia Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 24

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

19%Socioeconomic
3%Household composition
74%Racial/ethnic minority
64%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Lincolnia Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

13.6%Housing insecurity
9.1%Utility-shutoff threat
15.4%Food insecurity
12.9%SNAP enrollment
8.5%Transit barriers
8.4%No health insurance
15.8%Frequent mental distress
26.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lincolnia Park

What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.4/10. Set annual rent against average income of $75,278 and the ratio lands at 33%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.1/10.

Against the Alexandria City average of 5.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points. Severe burden reaches 18%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. On the high side, local political climate reads 8/10.

That is riskier than roughly 87% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.1 points hotter.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 41% of renters.

Average gross rent is $2,093, close to the Alexandria average.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51510200108

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51510200108?

Census tract 51510200108 in the Lincolnia Park neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51510200108?

Median gross rent is $2,093/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51510200108?

17.8% of residents in tract 51510200108 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,651.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51510200108?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 24th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 19th, household 3th, minority 74th, housing 64th.

Is tract 51510200108 considered part of Lincolnia Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51510200108 fall within Lincolnia Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51510200108 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51510200108 compare to Alexandria overall?

Tract 51510200108 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of Alexandria at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Alexandria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Alexandria

Top eight tracts in Alexandria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.