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Neighborhood · Ranked #16,032 of 84,120 nationally

Lyon Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Arlington

Tract 51013101803 · Arlington County, VA · pop 4,766 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

Census tract 51013101803 covers part of the Lyon Park area of Arlington, VA, and scores 6.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,766. The score leans hardest on local political climate at 8.5/10.

Risk score
6.4
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24% Stable renters 40% Owners 36%
Tract context
Occupied units2,008
Renter share64.4%
SVI overall0.29
Poverty rate10.3%
Median income$117,350

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 5 tracts In Lyon Park
High
Within parent city
77 th percentile
Rank, 77th percentileLowHigh
#17 of 71 tracts In Arlington
High
Within county
76 th percentile
Rank, 76th percentileLowHigh
#18 of 71 tracts In Arlington County
High
Within state
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#97 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Arlington and the region

Centroid at 38.8789, -77.0887 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lyon Park scores 6.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.3% poverty · this tract
2.6
Supply constraint
$1,907 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0

How Lyon Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Lyon Park risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.46.4This tracttract 101803Arlington: 6.06.0Arlingtonparent cityCounty: 5.95.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 29

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 12Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 0.73%Avg annual filing rate
  • 0.7%Peak (2016)
  • 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Lyon Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lyon Park

On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. Disability prevalence runs 19.2% against 31.5% nationally.

Severe burden reaches 13%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Food insecurity runs 7.3% against 17.8% nationally.

At $1,907 a month, rents run 18% under what the rest of Arlington commands. On the softer side, economic stress reads 2.6/10.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 12 filings here across 1 tracked years. The worst year on record was 2016, when 0.7% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 0.7% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #16,032 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 2.2 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 37% of renters.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51013101803

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013101803?

Census tract 51013101803 in the Lyon Park neighborhood scores 6.4/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51013101803?

Median gross rent is $1,907/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51013101803?

10.3% of residents in tract 51013101803 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,766.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51013101803?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 29th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 25th, household 19th, minority 49th, housing 49th.
Q5

Is tract 51013101803 considered part of Lyon Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013101803 fall within Lyon Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013101803?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 12 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013101803 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.73% of renter households, peaking at 0.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51013101803 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51013101803 compare to Arlington overall?

Tract 51013101803 scores 6.4/10, higher than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Arlington

Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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