Within neighborhood
25
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Lyon Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Arlington
Tract 51013103401 · Arlington County, VA · pop 1,205 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
51013103401 is a census tract in the Lyon Park area of Arlington, VA. It scores 5.4/10 for landlords. Cost burden runs 20% here against 38.9% across Arlington County.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%
Stable renters 80%
Owners 0%
Tract context
Occupied units25
Renter share100.0%
SVI overall0.01
Poverty rate0.0%
Median income$234,250
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
34
th percentile
Low
Within county
21
th percentile
Low
Within state
86
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Arlington and the region
Centroid at 38.8779, -77.0791 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lyon Park scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Arlington
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Arlington
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Arlington
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Arlington
6.0
How Lyon Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 1
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 12%Socioeconomic
- 0%Household composition
- 67%Racial/ethnic minority
- 8%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1Total filings over 1 yrs
- 2.22%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.2%Peak (2016)
- 1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lyon Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.0%Housing insecurity
- 5.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.6%Food insecurity
- 5.5%SNAP enrollment
- 7.3%Transit barriers
- 10.5%No health insurance
- 19.1%Frequent mental distress
- 22.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lyon Park
The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 10/10. At $3,501 a month, rents run 51% over what the rest of Arlington commands. The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
100% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.5/10.
SNAP participation runs 5.5% against 15.2% nationally. Court records carry 1 eviction filings across 1 observed years. Food insecurity runs 9.6% against 17.8% nationally.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 2.2% of renter households. In a typical year about 2.2% of renter households face a filing.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51013103401
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51013103401?
Census tract 51013103401 in the Lyon Park neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51013103401?
Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 20% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51013103401?
0.0% of residents in tract 51013103401 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,205.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51013103401?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 1th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 12th, household 0th, minority 67th, housing 8th.
Q5
Is tract 51013103401 considered part of Lyon Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51013103401 fall within Lyon Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51013103401?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51013103401 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.22% of renter households, peaking at 2.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51013103401 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51013103401 compare to Arlington overall?
Tract 51013103401 scores 5.4/10, lower than the parent city of Arlington at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Arlington eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Arlington
Top eight tracts in Arlington ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Douglas Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Virginia Highlands
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Lyon Park
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Buckingham
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Arlington Mill
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
North Highland
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Addison Heights
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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