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Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally

Willow Springs Eviction Risk: Lower , Centreville

Tract 51059491501 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 7,269 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

51059491501 is a census tract in the Willow Springs area of Centreville, VA. It scores 3.5/10 for landlords. Population here is 7,269. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.

Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 12% Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units2,324
Renter share17.9%
SVI overall0.28
Poverty rate1.6%
Median income$146,974

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 3 tracts In Willow Springs
Very Low
Within parent city
8 th percentile
Rank, 8th percentileLowHigh
#13 of 14 tracts In Centreville
Very Low
Within county
26 th percentile
Rank, 26th percentileLowHigh
#204 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Low
Within state
35 th percentile
Rank, 35th percentileLowHigh
#1,425 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Centreville and the region

Centroid at 38.8449, -77.4171 · click any tract to drill in

Why Willow Springs scores 3.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Centreville
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,607 rent vs county FMR
6.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Centreville
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Centreville
5.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Centreville
5.2

How Willow Springs compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Willow Springs risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.53.5This tracttract 491501Centreville: 4.14.1Centrevilleparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 28

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 50Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 1.96%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.0%Peak (2011)
  • 15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594915012011: 19 filings (2.96/100 renter HHs)2012: 12 filings (1.87/100 renter HHs)2013: 4 filings (0.62/100 renter HHs)2016: 15 filings (2.38/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 21% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Willow Springs. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Willow Springs

Disability prevalence runs 18.5% against 31.5% nationally. Severe burden reaches 16%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10.

around a third of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Fairfax County average of 41.0%. Food insecurity runs 9.2% against 17.8% nationally.

Court records carry 50 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.

It sits 0.8 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. At $2,607 a month, rents run 13% over what the rest of Centreville commands.

The voucher gap is 12.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The worst year on record was 2011, when 3.0% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 2.0% of renter households face a filing.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059491501

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491501?

Census tract 51059491501 in the Willow Springs neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059491501?

Median gross rent is $2,607/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491501?

1.6% of residents in tract 51059491501 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,269.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491501?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 28th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 22th, household 26th, minority 83th, housing 32th.
Q5

Is tract 51059491501 considered part of Willow Springs?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491501 fall within Willow Springs (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491501?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 50 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491501 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.96% of renter households, peaking at 3.0% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059491501 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059491501 compare to Centreville overall?

Tract 51059491501 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Centreville at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Centreville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Centreville

Top eight tracts in Centreville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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