Willow Springs Eviction Risk: Lower , Centreville
Tract 51059491501 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 7,269 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
51059491501 is a census tract in the Willow Springs area of Centreville, VA. It scores 3.5/10 for landlords. Population here is 7,269. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Centreville and the region
Centroid at 38.8449, -77.4171 · click any tract to drill in
Why Willow Springs scores 3.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Willow Springs compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 28
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 22%Socioeconomic
- 26%Household composition
- 83%Racial/ethnic minority
- 32%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 50Total filings over 4 yrs
- 1.96%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.0%Peak (2011)
- 15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Willow Springs. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.1%Housing insecurity
- 4.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.2%Food insecurity
- 5.0%SNAP enrollment
- 4.9%Transit barriers
- 5.6%No health insurance
- 11.2%Frequent mental distress
- 18.5%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Willow Springs
Disability prevalence runs 18.5% against 31.5% nationally. Severe burden reaches 16%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10.
around a third of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Fairfax County average of 41.0%. Food insecurity runs 9.2% against 17.8% nationally.
Court records carry 50 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.
It sits 0.8 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. At $2,607 a month, rents run 13% over what the rest of Centreville commands.
The voucher gap is 12.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The worst year on record was 2011, when 3.0% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 2.0% of renter households face a filing.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
About tract 51059491501
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491501?
What is the average rent in tract 51059491501?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491501?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491501?
Is tract 51059491501 considered part of Willow Springs?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491501?
What share of households in tract 51059491501 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51059491501 compare to Centreville overall?
Highest-risk tracts in Centreville
Top eight tracts in Centreville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.