Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #28,252 of 84,120 nationally
Chain Bridge Forest Eviction Risk: Moderate , McLean
Tract 51059470300 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,528 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Census tract 51059470300 sits in the Chain Bridge Forest neighborhood of McLean, Virginia. It has a population of 3,528 and an eviction-risk score of 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). 43% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 25% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $3,501/month against a median household income of $250,001 — roughly 17% rent-to-income at the medians.
Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1%
Stable renters 2%
Owners 97%
Tract context
Occupied units1,150
Renter share3.5%
SVI overall0.05
Poverty rate3.9%
Median income$250,001
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Within county
68
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
71
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across McLean and the region
Centroid at 38.9291, -77.1382 · click any tract to drill in
Why Chain Bridge Forest scores 5.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from McLean
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from McLean
5.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from McLean
3.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from McLean
4.1
How Chain Bridge Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 5
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 0%Socioeconomic
- 75%Household composition
- 28%Racial/ethnic minority
- 4%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 2Total filings over 2 yrs
- 2.50%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.5%Peak (2012)
- 1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 4.1%Housing insecurity
- 2.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 4.4%Food insecurity
- 2.7%SNAP enrollment
- 3.1%Transit barriers
- 3.9%No health insurance
- 10.3%Frequent mental distress
- 20.7%Any disability
Frequently asked
About tract 51059470300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059470300?
Census tract 51059470300 in the Chain Bridge Forest neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059470300?
Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059470300?
3.9% of residents in tract 51059470300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,528.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059470300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 5th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 0th, household 75th, minority 28th, housing 4th.
Q5
Is tract 51059470300 considered part of Chain Bridge Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059470300 fall within Chain Bridge Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059470300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51059470300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.50% of renter households, peaking at 3.5% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059470300 struggle to pay rent?
About 4.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.8% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059470300 compare to McLean overall?
Tract 51059470300 scores 5.7/10 — higher than the parent city of McLean at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from McLean eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in McLean
Top eight tracts in McLean ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Langley Oaks
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Franklin Forest
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Belleview
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
West McLean
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Broyhill-Glen Gary Park
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Southridge
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Ingleside
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Clearview Manor
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
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