Chain Bridge Forest Eviction Risk: Lower

The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. Against a McLean baseline of 29.6%, 43% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.

On the softer side is economic stress, at 1/10. Severe burden reaches 25%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. Court records for this tract carry 2 eviction filings.

2.8% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, below a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. 3.9% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt.

The worst year on record was 2012, when filings touched 3.5% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 1.5% in 2016, is well off that peak.

Among the 12 mapped neighborhoods of McLean, it ranks #3 by risk, the upper third. Only 4% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin here; price renewals off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

The closest comparables inside the same city are Westhampton and Ingleside. Rent takes 17% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market.

One tract means one number: 3.5/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.