Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Franklin Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , McLean
Tract 51059470900 ·
Fairfax County, VA · pop 7,619 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 51059470900 covers part of the Franklin Forest area of McLean, VA, and scores 3.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 7,619 residents. The voucher gap is 35.9%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%Stable renters 10%Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units2,901
Renter share20.5%
SVI overall0.24
Poverty rate2.9%
Median income$230,539
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Franklin Forest
Moderate
Within parent city
42th percentile
#8 of 13 tracts In McLean
Moderate
Within county
13th percentile
#238 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Very Low
Within state
31th percentile
#1,505 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across McLean and the region
Centroid at 38.9072, -77.1659 · click any tract to drill in
Why Franklin Forest scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from McLean
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,145 rent vs county FMR
8.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from McLean
5.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from McLean
3.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from McLean
4.1
How Franklin Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 24
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
3%Socioeconomic
65%Household composition
40%Racial/ethnic minority
45%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
7Total filings over 3 yrs
0.56%Avg annual filing rate
0.7%Peak (2011)
3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year2011 to 2016
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
4.7%Housing insecurity
3.0%Utility-shutoff threat
5.4%Food insecurity
3.4%SNAP enrollment
3.5%Transit barriers
4.4%No health insurance
10.4%Frequent mental distress
22.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Franklin Forest
28% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. On the high side, supply constraint reads 8.6/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.4/10. Cost burden runs roughly one in two here against 41.0% across Fairfax County. Housing insecurity runs 4.7% against 14.2% nationally.
It sits 0.9 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 7 filings here across 3 tracked years.
Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.0% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Filings peaked in 2011 at 0.7% of renter households.
At $3,145 a month, rents run 8% under what the rest of McLean commands. In a typical year about 0.6% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 29% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059470900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059470900?
Census tract 51059470900 in the Franklin Forest neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059470900?
Median gross rent is $3,145/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059470900?
2.9% of residents in tract 51059470900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,619.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059470900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 24th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 3th, household 65th, minority 40th, housing 45th.
Q5
Is tract 51059470900 considered part of Franklin Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059470900 fall within Franklin Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059470900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 7 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 51059470900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.56% of renter households, peaking at 0.7% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059470900 struggle to pay rent?
About 4.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059470900 compare to McLean overall?
Tract 51059470900 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of McLean at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from McLean eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in McLean
Top eight tracts in McLean ranked by composite eviction-risk score.