Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Evermay Eviction Risk: Lower , McLean
Tract 51059470400 ·
Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,142 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Tract 51059470400 sits in the Evermay area of McLean eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.4/10. It is home to 5,142 residents. The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 10/10.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3%Stable renters 7%Owners 90%
Tract context
Occupied units1,616
Renter share9.7%
SVI overall0.05
Poverty rate2.5%
Median income$250,001
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Evermay
Moderate
Within parent city
0th percentile
#13 of 13 tracts In McLean
Very Low
Within county
10th percentile
#247 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Very Low
Within state
31th percentile
#1,505 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across McLean and the region
Centroid at 38.9362, -77.1541 · click any tract to drill in
Why Evermay scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from McLean
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from McLean
5.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from McLean
3.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from McLean
4.1
How Evermay compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 5
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
2%Socioeconomic
61%Household composition
40%Racial/ethnic minority
3%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
5Total filings over 3 yrs
1.16%Avg annual filing rate
1.2%Peak (2013)
2Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year2011 to 2016
Filings climbed 100% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
4.0%Housing insecurity
2.6%Utility-shutoff threat
4.3%Food insecurity
2.5%SNAP enrollment
3.1%Transit barriers
3.7%No health insurance
10.1%Frequent mental distress
19.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Evermay
The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. 27% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well below the Fairfax County average of 41.0%.
Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.4/10.
Food insecurity runs 4.3% against 17.8% nationally. 13% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Housing insecurity runs 4.0% against 14.2% nationally.
Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points. The filing record is not thin: 5 evictions over 3 years of observation.
The worst year on record was 2013, when 1.2% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 1.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 29th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
At 10% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059470400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059470400?
Census tract 51059470400 in the Evermay neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059470400?
Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 27% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059470400?
2.5% of residents in tract 51059470400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,142.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059470400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 5th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 61th, minority 40th, housing 3th.
Q5
Is tract 51059470400 considered part of Evermay?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059470400 fall within Evermay (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059470400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 5 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 51059470400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.16% of renter households, peaking at 1.2% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059470400 struggle to pay rent?
About 4.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059470400 compare to McLean overall?
Tract 51059470400 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of McLean at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from McLean eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in McLean
Top eight tracts in McLean ranked by composite eviction-risk score.