Franklin Forest Eviction Risk: Lower

The voucher gap is 35.9%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. Severe burden reaches 28%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.

The main counterweight is economic stress, at 1/10. On the high side is supply constraint at 8.6/10.

The filing record is not thin: 7 evictions logged in this tract. 3.0% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, below a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. The worst year on record was 2011, when filings touched 0.7% of renter households.

4.4% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt. Recent filings have not receded much: 0.8% in 2016 against a 0.7% peak.

Average gross rent is $3,145, 8% below the McLean average of $3,422. Among the 12 mapped neighborhoods of McLean, it ranks #6 by risk, the middle third. Only 21% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin here; price renewals off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

One tract means one number: 3.4/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.