Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Olney Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tysons
Tract 51059471203 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,943 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
51059471203 is a census tract in the Olney Park area of Tysons, VA. It scores 5.4/10 for landlords. It is home to 2,943 residents. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.8/10.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 34%
Stable renters 26%
Owners 40%
Tract context
Occupied units1,342
Renter share60.2%
SVI overall0.06
Poverty rate3.3%
Median income$131,563
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
14
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
80
th percentile
High
Within state
86
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tysons and the region
Centroid at 38.9265, -77.2000 · click any tract to drill in
Why Olney Park scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tysons
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,746 rent vs county FMR
6.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tysons
3.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tysons
9.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tysons
3.9
How Olney Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 6
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 15%Socioeconomic
- 3%Household composition
- 62%Racial/ethnic minority
- 14%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Olney Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.0%Housing insecurity
- 3.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.3%Food insecurity
- 3.7%SNAP enrollment
- 4.2%Transit barriers
- 5.0%No health insurance
- 11.7%Frequent mental distress
- 17.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Olney Park
57% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Fairfax County average of 41.0%. The severe-burden share is 31%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10.
Running hot, local political climate reads 8.4/10. SNAP participation runs 3.7% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 6.3% against 17.8% nationally.
The voucher gap is 18.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points.
Average gross rent is $2,746, 10% above the Tysons average. That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.6/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059471203
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059471203?
Census tract 51059471203 in the Olney Park neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059471203?
Median gross rent is $2,746/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059471203?
3.3% of residents in tract 51059471203 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,943.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059471203?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 6th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 15th, household 3th, minority 62th, housing 14th.
Q5
Is tract 51059471203 considered part of Olney Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059471203 fall within Olney Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059471203 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059471203 compare to Tysons overall?
Tract 51059471203 scores 5.4/10, lower than the parent city of Tysons at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tysons eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tysons
Top eight tracts in Tysons ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Ash Grove
6.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Old Courthouse
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Olney Park
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Olney Park
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
McLean Hamlet
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Tysons Green
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Old Courthouse
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Related