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Neighborhood · Ranked #32,735 of 84,120 nationally

Lakeland Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lynchburg

Tract 51680001603 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 2,617 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 51680001603 (the Lakeland area of Lynchburg, Virginia) comes in at 5.5/10, the Moderate tier. That is riskier than roughly 55% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

About 44% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 24% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,257 monthly, set against $66,435 in average yearly household income, roughly 23% of income at the averages. About 48% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 27% Owners 52%
Tract context
Occupied units1,159
Renter share48.1%
SVI overall0.46
Poverty rate17.1%
Median income$66,435

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Lakeland
Moderate
Within parent city
41 th percentile
Rank, 41st percentileLowHigh
#14 of 23 tracts In Lynchburg
Moderate
Within county
36 th percentile
Rank, 36th percentileLowHigh
#15 of 23 tracts In Lynchburg city
Low
Within state
82 th percentile
Rank, 82nd percentileLowHigh
#387 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region

Centroid at 37.3484, -79.2099 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lakeland scores 4.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Lynchburg
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
17.1% poverty · this tract
4.3
Supply constraint
$1,257 rent vs county FMR
5.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lynchburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.5

How Lakeland compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Lakeland risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.54.5This tracttract 001603Lynchburg: 4.04.0Lynchburgparent cityCounty: 4.74.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 46

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lakeland

What moves this score most is supply constraint at 5.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Lynchburg City County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 11.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 8.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 46th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51680001603

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680001603?

Census tract 51680001603 in the Lakeland neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51680001603?

Median gross rent is $1,257/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51680001603?

17.1% of residents in tract 51680001603 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,617.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51680001603?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 46th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 50th, minority 60th, housing 31th.
Q5

Is tract 51680001603 considered part of Lakeland?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680001603 fall within Lakeland (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51680001603 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51680001603 compare to Lynchburg overall?

Tract 51680001603 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Lynchburg at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg

Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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