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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Queensdale Eviction Risk: Lower , Dale City

Tract 51153901226 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,384 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

With a score of 3/10, tract 51153901226 in the Queensdale area of Dale City, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. The severe-burden share is 51%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4% Stable renters 2% Owners 94%
Tract context
Occupied units1,748
Renter share6.6%
SVI overall0.18
Poverty rate3.2%
Median income$170,217

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Queensdale
Moderate
Within parent city
8 th percentile
Rank, 8th percentileLowHigh
#12 of 13 tracts In Dale City
Very Low
Within county
1 th percentile
Rank, 1st percentileLowHigh
#92 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Very Low
Within state
18 th percentile
Rank, 18th percentileLowHigh
#1,798 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dale City and the region

Centroid at 38.6711, -77.3684 · click any tract to drill in

Why Queensdale scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dale City
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,201 rent vs county FMR
4.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dale City
1.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dale City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dale City
2.2

How Queensdale compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Queensdale risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.0This tracttract 9012263.4Dale Cityparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 18

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 15Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 6.44%Avg annual filing rate
  • 6.4%Peak (2016)
  • 15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Queensdale

65% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Prince William County average of 43.3%. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.

Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.7/10.

Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.1 points. At $2,201 a month, rents run 17% over what the rest of Dale City commands. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 15 filings here across 1 tracked years.

The worst year on record was 2016, when 6.4% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 6.4% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

At 7% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 2.6/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 16% of average household income of $170,217, an unusually wide affordability cushion.

Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901226

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901226?

Census tract 51153901226 in the Queensdale neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901226?

Median gross rent is $2,201/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901226?

3.2% of residents in tract 51153901226 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,384.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901226?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 20th, household 56th, minority 77th, housing 4th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901226 considered part of Queensdale?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901226 fall within Queensdale (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901226?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 15 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901226 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.44% of renter households, peaking at 6.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153901226 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153901226 compare to Dale City overall?

Tract 51153901226 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Dale City at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dale City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dale City

Top eight tracts in Dale City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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