Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Mesa Patios Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 04013421501 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,446 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
With a score of 4.6/10, tract 04013421501 in the Mesa Patios area of Mesa, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units1,295
Renter share60.6%
SVI overall0.98
Poverty rate16.1%
Median income$47,469
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
92
th percentile
Very High
Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.4115, -111.8142 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mesa Patios scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
16.1% poverty · this tract
4.0
Supply constraint
$1,110 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Mesa Patios compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 98
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 97%Socioeconomic
- 83%Household composition
- 73%Racial/ethnic minority
- 97%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 612Total filings over 5 yrs
- 14.16%Avg annual filing rate
- 31.0%Peak (2005)
- 254Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 323% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Mesa Patios. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 24.5%Housing insecurity
- 14.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 34.8%Food insecurity
- 28.3%SNAP enrollment
- 17.4%Transit barriers
- 27.0%No health insurance
- 19.7%Frequent mental distress
- 39.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Mesa Patios
Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10. At $1,110 a month, rents run 31% under what the rest of Mesa commands. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.
Adults with no health insurance runs 27.0% against 11.3% nationally. 51% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Maricopa County average of 46.0%.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 612 filings here across 5 tracked years. Against the Maricopa County average of 3.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 14.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
Filings peaked in 2005 at 31.0% of renter households. In a typical year about 14.2% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 9.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013421501
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013421501?
Census tract 04013421501 in the Mesa Patios neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013421501?
Median gross rent is $1,110/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013421501?
16.1% of residents in tract 04013421501 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,446.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013421501?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 83th, minority 73th, housing 97th.
Q5
Is tract 04013421501 considered part of Mesa Patios?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013421501 fall within Mesa Patios (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013421501?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 612 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013421501 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.16% of renter households, peaking at 31.0% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013421501 struggle to pay rent?
About 24.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013421501 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013421501 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04013422001
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013522802
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
McQueen
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422102
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013941300
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Dobson Shores
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421302
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Culdesac Tempe
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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