Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #44,188 of 84,120 nationally
Agua Fria Eviction Risk: Moderate , El Mirage
Tract 04013061040 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,764 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
Census tract 04013061040 sits in the Agua Fria neighborhood of El Mirage, Arizona. It has a population of 4,764 and an eviction-risk score of 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). 30% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 10% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $1,724/month against a median household income of $86,909 — roughly 24% rent-to-income at the medians.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 64%
Tract context
Occupied units1,453
Renter share35.7%
SVI overall0.50
Poverty rate6.4%
Median income$86,909
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
63
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
65
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across El Mirage and the region
Centroid at 33.6020, -112.3378 · click any tract to drill in
Why Agua Fria scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from El Mirage
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
6.4% poverty · this tract
1.6
Supply constraint
$1,724 rent vs county FMR
3.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from El Mirage
5.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from El Mirage
6.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from El Mirage
6.0
How Agua Fria compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 50
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 63%Socioeconomic
- 58%Household composition
- 72%Racial/ethnic minority
- 17%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 156Total filings over 4 yrs
- 4,885.32%Avg annual filing rate
- 8,144.9%Peak (2004)
- 50Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Agua Fria. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.1%Housing insecurity
- 7.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 18.2%Food insecurity
- 12.2%SNAP enrollment
- 9.6%Transit barriers
- 15.0%No health insurance
- 16.6%Frequent mental distress
- 28.8%Any disability
Frequently asked
About tract 04013061040
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013061040?
Census tract 04013061040 in the Agua Fria neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013061040?
Median gross rent is $1,724/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013061040?
6.4% of residents in tract 04013061040 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,764.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013061040?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 50th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 63th, household 58th, minority 72th, housing 17th.
Q5
Is tract 04013061040 considered part of Agua Fria?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013061040 fall within Agua Fria (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013061040?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 156 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 04013061040 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4,885.32% of renter households, peaking at 8,144.9% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013061040 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.6% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013061040 compare to El Mirage overall?
Tract 04013061040 scores 5.2/10 — lower than the parent city of El Mirage at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from El Mirage eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in El Mirage
Top eight tracts in El Mirage ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Pueblo El Mirage RV Resort
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
6.0
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Surprise Original Townsite
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Pueblo El Mirage RV & Golf Resort
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
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