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Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally

Agua Fria Eviction Risk: Moderate , El Mirage

Tract 04013060802 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 3,062 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

04013060802 is a census tract in the Agua Fria area of El Mirage, AZ. It scores 4.3/10 for landlords. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.9/10.

Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 9% Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units1,037
Renter share14.6%
SVI overall0.70
Poverty rate10.6%
Median income$74,707

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 6 tracts In Agua Fria
Moderate
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 9 tracts In El Mirage
Moderate
Within county
71 th percentile
Rank, 71st percentileLowHigh
#293 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Elevated
Within state
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#537 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across El Mirage and the region

Centroid at 33.6198, -112.3144 · click any tract to drill in

Why Agua Fria scores 4.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from El Mirage
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
10.6% poverty · this tract
2.7
Supply constraint
$1,869 rent vs county FMR
4.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from El Mirage
5.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from El Mirage
6.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from El Mirage
6.0

How Agua Fria compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Agua Fria risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.34.3This tracttract 060802El Mirage: 4.04.0El Mirageparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 70

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 6Total filings over 2 yrs
  • 3.24%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5.4%Peak (2003)
  • 1Filings in 2004 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040130608022001: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2002: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2003: 5 filings (5.39/100 renter HHs)2004: 1 filings (1.08/100 renter HHs)2005: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Agua Fria. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Agua Fria

Severe burden reaches 19%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.2/10. 39% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Maricopa County average of 46.0%.

Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.2/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 6 filings here across 2 tracked years.

Adults with no health insurance runs 18.3% against 11.3% nationally. The worst year on record was 2003, when 5.4% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 3.2% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 47th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 15% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.3/10.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013060802

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013060802?

Census tract 04013060802 in the Agua Fria neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013060802?

Median gross rent is $1,869/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013060802?

10.6% of residents in tract 04013060802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,062.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013060802?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 70th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 69th, household 83th, minority 69th, housing 41th.
Q5

Is tract 04013060802 considered part of Agua Fria?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013060802 fall within Agua Fria (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013060802?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 6 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 04013060802 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.24% of renter households, peaking at 5.4% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013060802 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013060802 compare to El Mirage overall?

Tract 04013060802 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of El Mirage at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from El Mirage eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in El Mirage

Top eight tracts in El Mirage ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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