Within neighborhood
80
th percentile
High
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally
Agua Fria Eviction Risk: Moderate , El Mirage
Tract 04013061041 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,712 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
Census tract 04013061041 covers part of the Agua Fria area of El Mirage, AZ, and scores 4.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,712 residents. roughly one in four of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far below the Maricopa County average of 46.0%.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 31%
Owners 59%
Tract context
Occupied units1,501
Renter share40.6%
SVI overall0.50
Poverty rate17.4%
Median income$78,326
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Within county
85
th percentile
High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across El Mirage and the region
Centroid at 33.6016, -112.3292 · click any tract to drill in
Why Agua Fria scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from El Mirage
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
17.4% poverty · this tract
4.4
Supply constraint
$1,698 rent vs county FMR
3.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from El Mirage
5.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from El Mirage
6.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from El Mirage
6.0
How Agua Fria compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 50
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 59%Socioeconomic
- 63%Household composition
- 75%Racial/ethnic minority
- 17%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 97Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2,480.78%Avg annual filing rate
- 5,741.3%Peak (2004)
- 28Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Agua Fria. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 18.3%Housing insecurity
- 10.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 24.3%Food insecurity
- 17.4%SNAP enrollment
- 12.5%Transit barriers
- 19.0%No health insurance
- 18.5%Frequent mental distress
- 32.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Agua Fria
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.9/10. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.2/10. On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.2/10.
It sits 1.2 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7. The filing record is not thin: 97 evictions over 4 years of observation.
9% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Adults with no health insurance runs 19.0% against 11.3% nationally.
The worst year on record was 2004, when 5,741.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 2,480.8% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 59% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.5/10. Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013061041
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013061041?
Census tract 04013061041 in the Agua Fria neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013061041?
Median gross rent is $1,698/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 24% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013061041?
17.4% of residents in tract 04013061041 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,712.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013061041?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 50th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 63th, minority 75th, housing 17th.
Q5
Is tract 04013061041 considered part of Agua Fria?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013061041 fall within Agua Fria (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013061041?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 97 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 04013061041 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2,480.78% of renter households, peaking at 5,741.3% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013061041 struggle to pay rent?
About 18.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013061041 compare to El Mirage overall?
Tract 04013061041 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of El Mirage at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from El Mirage eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in El Mirage
Top eight tracts in El Mirage ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Pueblo El Mirage RV Resort
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Surprise Original Townsite
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Pueblo El Mirage RV & Golf Resort
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
3.6
/ 10 · Low
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