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Neighborhood · Ranked #41,065 of 84,120 nationally

Agua Fria Eviction Risk: Moderate , El Mirage

Tract 04013061041 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,712 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 04013061041 (the Agua Fria area of El Mirage, Arizona) comes in at 5.3/10, the Moderate tier. It lands near the 51st percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 24% of renter households, a moderate level, and 9% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,698 monthly, set against $78,326 in average yearly household income, roughly 26% of income at the averages. About 41% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10% Stable renters 31% Owners 59%
Tract context
Occupied units1,501
Renter share40.6%
SVI overall0.50
Poverty rate17.4%
Median income$78,326

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
80 th percentile
Rank, 80th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 6 tracts In Agua Fria
High
Within parent city
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 9 tracts In El Mirage
High
Within county
71 th percentile
Rank, 71st percentileLowHigh
#291 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Elevated
Within state
61 th percentile
Rank, 61st percentileLowHigh
#694 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across El Mirage and the region

Centroid at 33.6016, -112.3292 · click any tract to drill in

Why Agua Fria scores 4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from El Mirage
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
17.4% poverty · this tract
4.4
Supply constraint
$1,698 rent vs county FMR
3.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from El Mirage
5.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from El Mirage
6.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from El Mirage
6.0

How Agua Fria compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Agua Fria risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.04.0This tracttract 061041El Mirage: 2.72.7El Mirageparent cityCounty: 3.33.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 50

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 97Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 2,480.78%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5,741.3%Peak (2004)
  • 28Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040130610412001: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2002: 12 filings (1,497.74/100 renter HHs)2003: 11 filings (1,372.92/100 renter HHs)2004: 46 filings (5,741.32/100 renter HHs)2005: 28 filings (1,311.13/100 renter HHs)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Agua Fria. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Agua Fria

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 6.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from El Mirage eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Maricopa County average of 5.1 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 18.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 50th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013061041

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013061041?

Census tract 04013061041 in the Agua Fria neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013061041?

Median gross rent is $1,698/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 24% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013061041?

17.4% of residents in tract 04013061041 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,712.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013061041?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 50th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 63th, minority 75th, housing 17th.
Q5

Is tract 04013061041 considered part of Agua Fria?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013061041 fall within Agua Fria (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013061041?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 97 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 04013061041 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2,480.78% of renter households, peaking at 5,741.3% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013061041 struggle to pay rent?

About 18.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013061041 compare to El Mirage overall?

Tract 04013061041 scores 4/10, higher than the parent city of El Mirage at 2.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from El Mirage eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in El Mirage

Top eight tracts in El Mirage ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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