Neighborhood · Ranked #45,786 of 84,120 nationally

Agua Fria Eviction Risk: Moderate , El Mirage

Tract 04013060903 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 5,579 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

04013060903 is a census tract in the Agua Fria area of El Mirage, AZ. It scores 4.2/10 for landlords. Severe burden reaches 30%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score

4.2

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 16% Stable renters 12% Owners 72%

Tract context

Occupied units1,562

Renter share28.0%

SVI overall0.60

Poverty rate10.9%

Median income$81,599

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across El Mirage and the region

Centroid at 33.6017, -112.3203 · click any tract to drill in

Why Agua Fria scores 4.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from El Mirage

5.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

10.9% poverty · this tract

2.7

Supply constraint

$1,713 rent vs county FMR

3.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from El Mirage

5.6

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.2

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from El Mirage

6.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from El Mirage

6.0

How Agua Fria compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 60

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

77%Socioeconomic
66%Household composition
79%Racial/ethnic minority
15%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.¹

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

358Total filings over 5 yrs
46.00%Avg annual filing rate
41.0%Peak (2005)
96Filings in 2005 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2001 to 2005

Filings climbed 81% over the past 5 months.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Agua Fria. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

16.9%Housing insecurity
8.5%Utility-shutoff threat
21.4%Food insecurity
13.5%SNAP enrollment
10.9%Transit barriers
19.4%No health insurance
16.9%Frequent mental distress
29.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Agua Fria

The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 8.9/10. 57% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Maricopa County average of 46.0%. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10.

On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.2/10. Court records carry 358 eviction filings across 5 observed years.

Adults with no health insurance runs 19.4% against 11.3% nationally. The worst year on record was 2005, when 41.0% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 46.0% of renter households face a filing.

That is riskier than roughly 46% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 6.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013060903

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013060903?

Census tract 04013060903 in the Agua Fria neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04013060903?

Median gross rent is $1,713/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013060903?

10.9% of residents in tract 04013060903 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,579.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013060903?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 60th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 77th, household 66th, minority 79th, housing 15th.

Is tract 04013060903 considered part of Agua Fria?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013060903 fall within Agua Fria (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013060903?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 358 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013060903 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 46.00% of renter households, peaking at 41.0% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 04013060903 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04013060903 compare to El Mirage overall?

Tract 04013060903 scores 4.2/10, right in line with the parent city of El Mirage at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from El Mirage eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in El Mirage

Top eight tracts in El Mirage ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Eviction Lab tract-level court records (2000-2018) and Eviction Tracking System, Princeton University. Open Data Commons Attribution license. evictionlab.org