Neighborhood · Ranked #41,101 of 84,120 nationally

Agua Fria Eviction Risk: Moderate , El Mirage

Tract 04013061041 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,712 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Census tract 04013061041 sits in the Agua Fria neighborhood of El Mirage, Arizona. It has a population of 4,712 and an eviction-risk score of 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). 24% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 9% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $1,698/month against a median household income of $78,326 — roughly 26% rent-to-income at the medians.

Risk score

5.3

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 10% Stable renters 31% Owners 59%

Tract context

Occupied units1,501

Renter share40.6%

SVI overall0.50

Poverty rate17.4%

Median income$78,326

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across El Mirage and the region

Centroid at 33.6016, -112.3292 · click any tract to drill in

Why Agua Fria scores 5.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from El Mirage

5.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

17.4% poverty · this tract

4.4

Supply constraint

$1,698 rent vs county FMR

3.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from El Mirage

5.6

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.2

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from El Mirage

6.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from El Mirage

6.0

How Agua Fria compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 50

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

59%Socioeconomic
63%Household composition
75%Racial/ethnic minority
17%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

97Total filings over 4 yrs
2,480.78%Avg annual filing rate
5,741.3%Peak (2004)
28Filings in 2005 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2001 — 2005

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Agua Fria. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

18.3%Housing insecurity
10.0%Utility-shutoff threat
24.3%Food insecurity
17.4%SNAP enrollment
12.5%Transit barriers
19.0%No health insurance
18.5%Frequent mental distress
32.2%Any disability

Frequently asked

About tract 04013061041

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013061041?

Census tract 04013061041 in the Agua Fria neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04013061041?

Median gross rent is $1,698/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 24% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013061041?

17.4% of residents in tract 04013061041 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,712.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013061041?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 50th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 63th, minority 75th, housing 17th.

Is tract 04013061041 considered part of Agua Fria?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013061041 fall within Agua Fria (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013061041?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 97 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 04013061041 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2,480.78% of renter households, peaking at 5,741.3% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 04013061041 struggle to pay rent?

About 18.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.0% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04013061041 compare to El Mirage overall?

Tract 04013061041 scores 5.3/10 — lower than the parent city of El Mirage at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from El Mirage eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in El Mirage

Top eight tracts in El Mirage ranked by composite eviction-risk score.