6 census tracts · pop 25,957 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.5/10
· range 3.6–5.4
Agua Fria takes in 6 census tracts of El Mirage, AZ, population 25,957. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 4.5/10, in the Moderate tier. Cost burden runs 41% against 28.8% citywide, putting Agua Fria 12.2% over its own city.
The 6 tracts inside this boundary do not behave alike. Individual scores run 3.6 to 5.4, a 1.8-point gap wide enough that the area average misleads on any specific address. The main counterweight is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.2/10. The severe-burden share is 17%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay.
21.5% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt. Court records carry 807 eviction filings across its 6 observed tracts.
The worst year on record was 2005, when filings touched 8,144.9% of renter households. Food insecurity affects 26.0% of adults, 8.2 points above the national rate. Average gross rent is $1,622, 10% below the El Mirage average of $1,806.
Judgments average 522.8% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $75,329.
33% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.8 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
6 tracts · population-weighted
Agua Fria vs El MirageHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority77%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport30%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Agua Fria
Aggregated across 6 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
807Total filings (sum)
1,360.28%Avg annual filing rate
8,144.9%Peak year (2005)
788.88%Latest filed (2005)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Agua Fria
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
18.9%Housing insecurity
10.2%Utility shutoff threat
25.5%Food insecurity
18.3%SNAP enrollment
21.1%No health insurance
33.0%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Agua Fria
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Agua Fria?
Agua Fria scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier) across 6 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Agua Fria compare to El Mirage overall?
Agua Fria scores 0.5 points higher than El Mirage overall (4/10). Renters spend 41% of income on rent vs 29% citywide. Average rent: $1,622 vs $1,806.
Q3
What is the average rent in Agua Fria?
Average gross rent in Agua Fria is $1,622/month (pop-weighted across 6 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Agua Fria residents are renters?
33% of Agua Fria households are renter-occupied (vs 30% in El Mirage). The neighborhood has 25,957 residents.
Q5
Is Agua Fria a high social-vulnerability area?
Agua Fria sits in the 65th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Agua Fria have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Agua Fria is census tract 04013060902 (score 5.4/10). Across the 6 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.6 to 5.4, a spread of 1.8 points.
Q7
How safe is Agua Fria for landlords?
Agua Fria carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.5/10). Pop-weighted across 6 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to El Mirage as a whole (4/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Agua Fria?
Agua Fria has 26,359 residents. Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (53.5%), White (non-Hispanic) (32.5%), Black (non-Hispanic) (6.7%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
