Mesa Eviction Risk: Moderate

The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. The severe-burden share is 25%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.

Set annual rent against average income of $51,283 and the ratio lands at 35%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. 72% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Running cool, state political climate reads 2.2/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 21.3% against 11.3% nationally.

The poverty rate is 20%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 2,256 filings here across 5 tracked years.

Against the Maricopa County average of 3.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points. Housing insecurity runs 22.0% against 14.2% nationally.

Filings peaked in 2005 at 42.3% of renter households. Average gross rent is $1,488, 8% below the Mesa average.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.