South Phoenix Eviction Risk: Moderate

Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Set annual rent against average income of $39,474 and the ratio lands at 39%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

25% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. 81% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.

Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, 57% of renters here are cost-burdened. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.5/10. The poverty rate is 28%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Against the Maricopa County average of 3.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. At $1,276 a month, rents run 19% under what the rest of Phoenix commands. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 17.9% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

The filing record is not thin: 735 evictions over 5 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2004, when 18.7% of renter households were served.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.