Within parent city
89
th percentile
High
Census Tract · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Mesa Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 04013421902 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 6,699
Census tract 04013421902 covers part of Mesa, AZ, and scores 4.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. Adults with no health insurance runs 35.9% against 11.3% nationally.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 34%
Stable renters 35%
Owners 31%
Tract context
Occupied units1,672
Renter share69.1%
SVI overall0.98
Poverty rate37.2%
Median income$50,457
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
78
th percentile
High
National
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.4042, -111.8141 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mesa scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
37.2% poverty · this tract
9.3
Supply constraint
$1,282 rent vs county FMR
1.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Mesa compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 98
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 97%Socioeconomic
- 87%Household composition
- 86%Racial/ethnic minority
- 95%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 530Total filings over 5 yrs
- 11.04%Avg annual filing rate
- 13.5%Peak (2003)
- 80Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 18% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 31.9%Housing insecurity
- 19.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 46.5%Food insecurity
- 39.5%SNAP enrollment
- 22.8%Transit barriers
- 35.9%No health insurance
- 20.5%Frequent mental distress
- 43.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Mesa
SNAP participation runs 39.5% against 15.2% nationally. 33% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The dominant input is economic stress at 9.3/10.
The poverty rate is 37%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.
This is renter territory: 69% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. At $1,282 a month, rents run 21% under what the rest of Mesa commands. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 530 filings here across 5 tracked years.
Against the Maricopa County average of 3.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points. Filings peaked in 2003 at 13.5% of renter households.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013421902
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013421902?
Census tract 04013421902 in Mesa scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013421902?
Median gross rent is $1,282/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013421902?
37.2% of residents in tract 04013421902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,699.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013421902?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 87th, minority 86th, housing 95th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013421902?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 530 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013421902 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.04% of renter households, peaking at 13.5% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 04013421902 struggle to pay rent?
About 31.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 19.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04013421902 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013421902 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Velda Rose Estates
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422106
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422107
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Arizona Cowboy
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Royal Palm Village
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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