Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #8,912 of 84,120 nationally
Keeling Eviction Risk: Elevated , Tucson
Tract 04019001304 · Pima, AZ · pop 5,034 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
With a score of 6.1/10, tract 04019001304 in Keeling in Tucson ranks in the Elevated tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 5,034 residents. On the national scale it ranks #17,563 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
65% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 29% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $855 monthly, set against $33,172 in average yearly household income, roughly 31% of income at the averages. About 71% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
6.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 46%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 29%
Tract context
Occupied units2,435
Renter share71.2%
SVI overall0.93
Poverty rate31.9%
Median income$33,172
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
97
th percentile
Very High
Within county
97
th percentile
Very High
Within state
98
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.2559, -110.9709 · click any tract to drill in
Why Keeling scores 6.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
31.9% poverty · this tract
8.0
Supply constraint
$855 rent vs county FMR
1.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Keeling compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 93
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 97%Socioeconomic
- 61%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 89%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 2,372Total filings over 12 yrs
- 12.82%Avg annual filing rate
- 21.6%Peak (2008)
- 142Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 32% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Keeling. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 20.9%Housing insecurity
- 15.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 29.8%Food insecurity
- 26.1%SNAP enrollment
- 16.5%Transit barriers
- 20.2%No health insurance
- 21.1%Frequent mental distress
- 41.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Keeling
The heaviest input here is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Tucson eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Pima County average of 5.5 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 20.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 15.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 2,372 eviction filings here over 12 tracked years, with about 12.8% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 21.6% of renter households in 2008.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019001304
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019001304?
Census tract 04019001304 in the Keeling neighborhood scores 6.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019001304?
Median gross rent is $855/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019001304?
31.9% of residents in tract 04019001304 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,034.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019001304?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 93th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 61th, minority 79th, housing 89th.
Q5
Is tract 04019001304 considered part of Keeling?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019001304 fall within Keeling (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019001304?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,372 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019001304 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.82% of renter households, peaking at 21.6% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04019001304 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04019001304 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019001304 scores 6.3/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Amphitheater
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
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Twelve Hundred River Condominums
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Palo Verde
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Amphitheater
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
West University
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
04019002202
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
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04019003506
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
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El Cortez
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
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