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Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally

Twelve Hundred River Condominums Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019004510 · Pima, AZ · pop 3,562 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Census tract 04019004510 covers part of the Twelve Hundred River Condominums area of Tucson, AZ, and scores 5.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,562 residents. Against Pima County at 43.8%, roughly two in three of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 48% Stable renters 27% Owners 25%
Tract context
Occupied units1,624
Renter share75.2%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate35.1%
Median income$30,428

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Twelve Hundred River Condominums
Very High
Within parent city
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#48 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Elevated
Within county
98 th percentile
Rank, 98th percentileLowHigh
#7 of 270 tracts In Pima
Very High
Within state
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#72 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2866, -110.9672 · click any tract to drill in

Why Twelve Hundred River Condominums scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
35.1% poverty · this tract
8.8
Supply constraint
$896 rent vs county FMR
1.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Twelve Hundred River Condominums compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Twelve Hundred River Condominums risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.25.2This tracttract 004510Tucson: 3.83.8Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.93.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 87

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,740Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 11.62%Avg annual filing rate
  • 23.3%Peak (2006)
  • 129Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190045102004: 124 filings (9.99/100 renter HHs)2005: 231 filings (17.39/100 renter HHs)2006: 309 filings (23.27/100 renter HHs)2007: 78 filings (5.87/100 renter HHs)2008: 92 filings (6.93/100 renter HHs)2009: 108 filings (8.13/100 renter HHs)2010: 94 filings (8.14/100 renter HHs)2011: 101 filings (8.63/100 renter HHs)2012: 221 filings (18.87/100 renter HHs)2013: 133 filings (11.36/100 renter HHs)2016: 120 filings (10.07/100 renter HHs)2017: 129 filings (10.82/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Twelve Hundred River Condominums. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Twelve Hundred River Condominums

Severe burden reaches 35%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. What pushes it up most is economic stress at 8.8/10.

The poverty rate is 35%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income of $30,428, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. 75% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.5/10.

Average gross rent is $896, 22% below the Tucson average. It sits 1.3 points above the Pima County average of 3.9.

Food insecurity runs 28.8% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 24.5% against 15.2% nationally.

The filing record is not thin: 1,740 evictions over 12 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2006 at 23.3% of renter households.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019004510

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004510?

Census tract 04019004510 in the Twelve Hundred River Condominums neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019004510?

Median gross rent is $896/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004510?

35.1% of residents in tract 04019004510 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,562.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004510?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 89th, household 14th, minority 76th, housing 99th.
Q5

Is tract 04019004510 considered part of Twelve Hundred River Condominums?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019004510 fall within Twelve Hundred River Condominums (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004510?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,740 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004510 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.62% of renter households, peaking at 23.3% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019004510 struggle to pay rent?

About 18.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019004510 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019004510 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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