El Cortez Eviction Risk: Moderate

The strongest single driver of the headline number is economic stress at 10/10. Severe burden reaches 36%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.

The poverty rate is 43%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 80% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Running cool is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10. The filing record is not thin: 998 evictions logged in this tract.

Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 2.6/10. Filing activity peaked in 2006 at 10.4% of renter households.

At $1,049 a month, rents sit 8% under what the rest of Tucson commands. The most recent observed rate, 3.0% in 2017, is well off that peak.

That places it #2 of 32 neighborhoods in Tucson.

One tract means one number: 5.2/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.