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Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally

El Gheko Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019003002 · Pima, AZ · pop 4,947 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

Tract 04019003002 sits in the El Gheko area of Tucson eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.3/10. Against Pima County at 43.8%, 57% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25% Stable renters 19% Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units2,350
Renter share44.0%
SVI overall0.86
Poverty rate14.1%
Median income$56,767

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In El Gheko
Moderate
Within parent city
42 th percentile
Rank, 42nd percentileLowHigh
#84 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Moderate
Within county
63 th percentile
Rank, 63rd percentileLowHigh
#100 of 270 tracts In Pima
Elevated
Within state
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#537 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2362, -110.8667 · click any tract to drill in

Why El Gheko scores 4.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
14.1% poverty · this tract
3.5
Supply constraint
$919 rent vs county FMR
1.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How El Gheko compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
El Gheko risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.34.3This tracttract 003002Tucson: 3.83.8Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.93.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 86

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,516Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 11.81%Avg annual filing rate
  • 15.9%Peak (2004)
  • 122Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190030022004: 164 filings (15.92/100 renter HHs)2005: 121 filings (11.84/100 renter HHs)2006: 79 filings (7.73/100 renter HHs)2007: 105 filings (10.27/100 renter HHs)2008: 113 filings (11.06/100 renter HHs)2009: 102 filings (9.98/100 renter HHs)2010: 127 filings (11.91/100 renter HHs)2011: 150 filings (12.91/100 renter HHs)2012: 156 filings (13.43/100 renter HHs)2013: 155 filings (13.34/100 renter HHs)2016: 122 filings (11.69/100 renter HHs)2017: 122 filings (11.69/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 26% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within El Gheko. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in El Gheko

The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. 20% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.7/10. Average gross rent is $919, 20% below the Tucson average. The filing record is not thin: 1,516 evictions over 12 years of observation.

Filings peaked in 2004 at 15.9% of renter households. In a typical year about 11.8% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #44,239 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Social vulnerability reads 8.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

It tracks the Pima County average of 3.9 closely. Annual rent works out to 19% of average household income of $56,767. 44% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019003002

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019003002?

Census tract 04019003002 in the El Gheko neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019003002?

Median gross rent is $919/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019003002?

14.1% of residents in tract 04019003002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,947.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019003002?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 86th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 71th, household 91th, minority 63th, housing 85th.
Q5

Is tract 04019003002 considered part of El Gheko?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019003002 fall within El Gheko (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019003002?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,516 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019003002 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.81% of renter households, peaking at 15.9% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019003002 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019003002 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019003002 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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