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Neighborhood · Tucson, AZ

El Gheko Eviction Risk: Moderate

3 census tracts · pop 11,905 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.6/10 · range 4.5–4.8

El Gheko is a white (non-hispanic) neighborhood in Tucson with 3 census tracts and a population of 11,905 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 4.6/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 66% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 32% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,310/month sits 14% higher than the Tucson citywide average ($1,145).

Risk score
4.6
Moderate
3 tracts · population-weighted
El Gheko vs Tucson How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
65.8% +101%
Tucson: 32.8%
Average gross rent
$1,310 +14%
Tucson: $1,145
Average HH income
$54,757 +0%
Tucson: $54,546
Poverty rate
13.4% -29%
Tucson: 18.8%
Renter share
49.0% +2%
Tucson: 48.2%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across El Gheko and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 4.5–4.8

Why El Gheko scores 4.6

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts
2.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.9–5.9 across tracts
5.9
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.0–7.0 across tracts
7.0
Rent control risk
66% of income on rent · Range 1.5–1.5 across tracts
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 4.0–4.0 across tracts
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
49% renter households · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts
5.5
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 4.5–4.5 across tracts
4.5
Economic stress
13.4% below poverty line · Range 2.9–3.8 across tracts
3.4
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.7–7.5 across tracts
4.5
Risk score comparison

El Gheko vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

El Gheko score vs. parent city, state, U.S.El Gheko: 4.64.6El GhekoNeighborhoodParent city: 3.23.2Parent cityhost cityState: 2.72.7Stateavg in stateU.S.: 4.74.7U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in El Gheko?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 0.3 points from 4.5 to 4.8. Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

3 tracts in El Gheko

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
04019004067 4.8 2,698 53% $1,381
04019003002 4.6 4,947 57% $919
04019004068 4.5 4,260 85% $1,719
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 75

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 71%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 61%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 55%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 74%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in El Gheko

Aggregated across 3 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 3,754Total filings (sum)
  • 10.82%Avg annual filing rate
  • 23.2%Peak year (2009)
  • 8.22%Latest filed (2017)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in El Gheko

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About El Gheko

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for El Gheko?

El Gheko scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does El Gheko compare to Tucson overall?

El Gheko scores 1.4 points higher than Tucson overall (3.2/10). Renters spend 66% of income on rent vs 33% citywide. Average rent: $1,310 vs $1,145.
Q3

What is the average rent in El Gheko?

Average gross rent in El Gheko is $1,310/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of El Gheko residents are renters?

49% of El Gheko households are renter-occupied (vs 48% in Tucson). The neighborhood has 11,905 residents.
Q5

Is El Gheko a high social-vulnerability area?

El Gheko sits in the 75th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in El Gheko have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in El Gheko is census tract 04019004067 (score 4.8/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 4.5 to 4.8, a spread of 0.3 points.
Q7

How safe is El Gheko for landlords?

El Gheko carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.6/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Tucson as a whole (3.2/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of El Gheko?

El Gheko has 12,350 residents (White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (61.5%), Hispanic / Latino (25.7%), Other / Multiracial (7.4%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near El Gheko

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Tucson

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to El Gheko.

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