Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally

El Gheko Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019004068 · Pima, AZ · pop 4,260 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

04019004068 is a census tract in the El Gheko area of Tucson, AZ. It scores 4/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,260 residents. 55% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 42% Stable renters 7% Owners 51%
Tract context
Occupied units2,284
Renter share49.0%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate11.5%
Median income$55,392

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 3 tracts In El Gheko
Very Low
Within parent city
37 th percentile
Rank, 37th percentileLowHigh
#90 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Low
Within county
60 th percentile
Rank, 60th percentileLowHigh
#110 of 270 tracts In Pima
Elevated
Within state
65 th percentile
Rank, 65th percentileLowHigh
#627 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2280, -110.8446 · click any tract to drill in

Why El Gheko scores 4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
11.5% poverty · this tract
2.9
Supply constraint
$1,719 rent vs county FMR
7.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How El Gheko compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
El Gheko risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.04.0This tracttract 004068Tucson: 3.83.8Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.93.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 65

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,647Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 12.43%Avg annual filing rate
  • 23.2%Peak (2008)
  • 66Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190040682004: 131 filings (13.47/100 renter HHs)2005: 133 filings (12.58/100 renter HHs)2006: 166 filings (15.70/100 renter HHs)2007: 190 filings (17.97/100 renter HHs)2008: 245 filings (23.17/100 renter HHs)2009: 163 filings (15.41/100 renter HHs)2010: 145 filings (13.13/100 renter HHs)2011: 139 filings (10.59/100 renter HHs)2012: 120 filings (9.15/100 renter HHs)2013: 102 filings (7.77/100 renter HHs)2016: 47 filings (4.25/100 renter HHs)2017: 66 filings (5.97/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 50% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within El Gheko. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in El Gheko

Against Pima County at 43.8%, 85% of renters here are cost-burdened. At $1,719 a month, rents run 50% over what the rest of Tucson commands. Annualized rent equals 37% of average household income of $55,392, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.

The voucher gap is 25.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10. The filing record is not thin: 1,647 evictions over 12 years of observation.

SNAP participation runs 7.1% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 9.8% against 17.8% nationally.

The worst year on record was 2008, when 23.2% of renter households were served.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019004068

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004068?

Census tract 04019004068 in the El Gheko neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019004068?

Median gross rent is $1,719/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 85% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004068?

11.5% of residents in tract 04019004068 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,260.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004068?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 33th, minority 46th, housing 86th.
Q5

Is tract 04019004068 considered part of El Gheko?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019004068 fall within El Gheko (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004068?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,647 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004068 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.43% of renter households, peaking at 23.2% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019004068 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019004068 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019004068 scores 4/10, right in line with the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related