Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally
El Gheko Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson
Tract 04019004068 ·
Pima, AZ · pop 4,260 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
04019004068 is a census tract in the El Gheko area of Tucson, AZ. It scores 4/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,260 residents. 55% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 42%Stable renters 7%Owners 51%
Tract context
Occupied units2,284
Renter share49.0%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate11.5%
Median income$55,392
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0th percentile
#3 of 3 tracts In El Gheko
Very Low
Within parent city
37th percentile
#90 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Low
Within county
60th percentile
#110 of 270 tracts In Pima
Elevated
Within state
65th percentile
#627 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.2280, -110.8446 · click any tract to drill in
Why El Gheko scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
11.5% poverty · this tract
2.9
Supply constraint
$1,719 rent vs county FMR
7.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How El Gheko compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 65
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
59%Socioeconomic
33%Household composition
46%Racial/ethnic minority
86%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
7.4%Housing insecurity
5.3%Utility-shutoff threat
9.8%Food insecurity
7.1%SNAP enrollment
6.3%Transit barriers
9.2%No health insurance
13.7%Frequent mental distress
35.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in El Gheko
Against Pima County at 43.8%, 85% of renters here are cost-burdened. At $1,719 a month, rents run 50% over what the rest of Tucson commands. Annualized rent equals 37% of average household income of $55,392, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.
The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.
The voucher gap is 25.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10. The filing record is not thin: 1,647 evictions over 12 years of observation.
SNAP participation runs 7.1% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 9.8% against 17.8% nationally.
The worst year on record was 2008, when 23.2% of renter households were served.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019004068
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004068?
Census tract 04019004068 in the El Gheko neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019004068?
Median gross rent is $1,719/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 85% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004068?
11.5% of residents in tract 04019004068 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,260.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004068?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 33th, minority 46th, housing 86th.
Q5
Is tract 04019004068 considered part of El Gheko?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019004068 fall within El Gheko (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004068?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,647 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004068 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.43% of renter households, peaking at 23.2% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04019004068 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04019004068 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019004068 scores 4/10, right in line with the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.