Twelve Hundred River Condominums Eviction Risk: Moderate

The severe-burden share is 32%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. Pulling the other way is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10. Scores across the 3 constituent tracts range from 3.6 to 5.2. A 1.6-point internal spread means block-level underwriting beats area-level here.

The poverty rate is 20%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. Court records carry 2,695 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts.

The worst year on record was 2010, when filings touched 23.3% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 7.3% in 2017, is well off that peak.

Among the 32 mapped neighborhoods of Tucson, it ranks #23 by risk, the lower third. For a like-for-like read, Broadway Northeast and Arroyo Chico score within a fraction of it. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.1/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Average gross rent runs $1,154, close to the Tucson average. Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $45,697.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.6 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.