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Neighborhood · Ranked #3,529 of 84,120 nationally

Otay Eviction Risk: High , Chula Vista

Tract 06073013206 · San Diego, CA · pop 6,266 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Census tract 06073013206 covers part of the Otay area of Chula Vista, CA, and scores 9.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 6,266. Severe burden reaches 39%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score
9.2
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 42% Stable renters 19% Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units2,181
Renter share60.3%
SVI overall0.99
Poverty rate22.9%
Median income$52,622

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#2 of 7 tracts In Otay
High
Within parent city
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#6 of 54 tracts In Chula Vista
Very High
Within county
85 th percentile
Rank, 85th percentileLowHigh
#113 of 736 tracts In San Diego
High
Within state
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#1,536 of 9,109 tracts In California
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Chula Vista and the region

Centroid at 32.5992, -117.0723 · click any tract to drill in

Why Otay scores 9.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Chula Vista
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
22.9% poverty · this tract
5.7
Supply constraint
$1,622 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chula Vista
8.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chula Vista
8.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chula Vista
6.3

How Otay compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Otay risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 9.29.2This tracttract 013206Chula Vista: 7.87.8Chula Vistaparent cityCounty: 7.67.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 7.57.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 99

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Otay. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Otay

Against San Diego County at 52.5%, 69% of renters here are cost-burdened. The clearest offset is supply constraint at 1/10.

Annualized rent equals 37% of average household income of $52,622, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. SNAP participation runs 32.5% against 15.2% nationally. At $1,622 a month, rents run 27% under what the rest of Chula Vista commands.

On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.1/10. Against the San Diego County average of 7.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.1/10.

Housing insecurity runs 26.4% against 14.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 23%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. On the national scale it lands near the 96th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.7 points hotter.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06073013206

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073013206?

Census tract 06073013206 in the Otay neighborhood scores 9.2/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06073013206?

Median gross rent is $1,622/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 69% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06073013206?

22.9% of residents in tract 06073013206 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,266.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06073013206?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 99th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 93th, household 95th, minority 90th, housing 99th.
Q5

Is tract 06073013206 considered part of Otay?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073013206 fall within Otay (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 06073013206 struggle to pay rent?

About 26.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 06073013206 compare to Chula Vista overall?

Tract 06073013206 scores 9.2/10, higher than the parent city of Chula Vista at 7.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chula Vista eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Chula Vista

Top eight tracts in Chula Vista ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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