Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #3,529 of 84,120 nationally
Castle Park Eviction Risk: High , Chula Vista
Tract 06073013203 · San Diego, CA · pop 6,002 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
With a score of 9.2/10, tract 06073013203 in the Castle Park area of Chula Vista, CA reads high for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,002 residents. 32% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
9.2
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 50%
Stable renters 34%
Owners 16%
Tract context
Occupied units2,146
Renter share83.8%
SVI overall0.99
Poverty rate12.4%
Median income$52,014
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
98
th percentile
Very High
Within county
85
th percentile
High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chula Vista and the region
Centroid at 32.6068, -117.0642 · click any tract to drill in
Why Castle Park scores 9.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chula Vista
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
12.4% poverty · this tract
3.1
Supply constraint
$1,642 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chula Vista
8.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chula Vista
8.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chula Vista
6.3
How Castle Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 99
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 96%Socioeconomic
- 98%Household composition
- 93%Racial/ethnic minority
- 92%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Castle Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 25.0%Housing insecurity
- 10.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 30.1%Food insecurity
- 25.9%SNAP enrollment
- 14.1%Transit barriers
- 21.1%No health insurance
- 18.1%Frequent mental distress
- 35.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Castle Park
Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1/10. This is renter territory: 84% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.
Annualized rent equals 38% of average household income of $52,014, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. At $1,642 a month, rents run 26% under what the rest of Chula Vista commands.
Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.1/10. Against the San Diego County average of 7.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points.
Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.1/10. Food insecurity runs 30.1% against 17.8% nationally. Against San Diego County at 52.5%, 60% of renters here are cost-burdened.
SNAP participation runs 25.9% against 15.2% nationally. That is riskier than roughly 96% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.9/10. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.7 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 06073013203
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073013203?
Census tract 06073013203 in the Castle Park neighborhood scores 9.2/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 06073013203?
Median gross rent is $1,642/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 06073013203?
12.4% of residents in tract 06073013203 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,002.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 06073013203?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 99th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 96th, household 98th, minority 93th, housing 92th.
Q5
Is tract 06073013203 considered part of Castle Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073013203 fall within Castle Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 06073013203 struggle to pay rent?
About 25.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 06073013203 compare to Chula Vista overall?
Tract 06073013203 scores 9.2/10, higher than the parent city of Chula Vista at 7.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chula Vista eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chula Vista
Top eight tracts in Chula Vista ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · CA
Sunny Vista
9.2
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Otay
9.2
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Sunny Vista
9.2
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Boal
9.2
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Otay
9.2
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Harbor Side
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Fruitdale
9
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Sunny Vista
9
/ 10 · Very High
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