Modesto Eviction Risk: Moderate

The voucher gap is 49.0%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. At $2,333 a month, rents run 38% over what the rest of Modesto commands. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10.

21% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. 56% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Stanislaus County average of 47.5%.

On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.3/10. It sits 1.2 points below the Stanislaus County average of 6.5. On the national scale it lands near the 67th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

At 17% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.6/10.

Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 2.2 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $123,333.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.