Modesto Eviction Risk: Moderate

The voucher gap is 30.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10.

Running cool, economic stress reads 1.9/10. Running hot, supply constraint reads 8/10.

Average gross rent is $2,042, 21% above the Modesto average. It sits 1.2 points below the Stanislaus County average of 6.5. That is riskier than roughly 67% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

At 18% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.6/10. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 2.2 points cooler.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 50% of renters. Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $117,422.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.