Within neighborhood
20
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #63,321 of 84,120 nationally
Bear Creek Eviction Risk: Lower , St. Petersburg
Tract 12103022301 · Pinellas, FL · pop 2,920 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Eviction risk in the Bear Creek area of St. Petersburg centers on tract 12103022301, which scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier) and is home to 2,920 residents. It lands near the 21st percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 78% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 32% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,374 a month against an average household income of $76,739 a year, roughly 21% of income at the averages. Renters make up 22% of occupied homes.
Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 5%
Owners 78%
Tract context
Occupied units1,266
Renter share22.0%
SVI overall0.47
Poverty rate5.0%
Median income$76,739
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
33
th percentile
Low
Within county
29
th percentile
Low
Within state
41
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Petersburg and the region
Centroid at 27.7668, -82.7233 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bear Creek scores 3.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Petersburg
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
5.0% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$1,374 rent vs county FMR
1.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Petersburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Petersburg
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Petersburg
4.0
How Bear Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 47
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 58%Socioeconomic
- 34%Household composition
- 39%Racial/ethnic minority
- 43%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 2%Grade B
- 26%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 257Total filings over 18 yrs
- 4.72%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.9%Peak (2012)
- 8Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 60% over the past 18 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 50Total filings 2020-21
- 0.7Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.8Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.88×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bear Creek. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bear Creek
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 4.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from St. Petersburg eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Pinellas County average of 4.8 and below the Florida statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 47th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 257 eviction filings here over 18 tracked years, with about 4.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 7.9% of renter households in 2012.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 12103022301
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12103022301?
Census tract 12103022301 in the Bear Creek neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12103022301?
Median gross rent is $1,374/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 78% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12103022301?
5.0% of residents in tract 12103022301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,920.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12103022301?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 47th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 58th, household 34th, minority 39th, housing 43th.
Q5
Is tract 12103022301 considered part of Bear Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12103022301 fall within Bear Creek (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12103022301?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 257 eviction filings across 18 validated years in tract 12103022301 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.72% of renter households, peaking at 7.9% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12103022301 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.88× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12103022301 compare to St. Petersburg overall?
Tract 12103022301 scores 3.5/10, higher than the parent city of St. Petersburg at 2.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Petersburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 12103022301 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Petersburg
Top eight tracts in St. Petersburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
Thirteenth Street Heights
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
12103020206
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
Childs Park
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
Palmetto Park
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Riviera Bay
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Bridgewater Place
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Bartlett Park
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Childs Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
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