Downtown Springfield Railroad District Eviction Risk: Elevated

Food insecurity affects 42.1% of adults, 24.3 points above the national rate. This is a renter market: 82% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 32.1% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.

The poverty rate is 34%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The severe-burden share is 22%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. The clearest offset is supply constraint, at 2.4/10. Scores across the 4 constituent tracts range from 6.7 to 7.9. A 1.2-point internal spread means block-level underwriting beats area-level here.

Running hot is economic stress at 7.2/10. Average gross rent is $993, 13% below the Springfield average of $1,144.

That places it #6 of 13 neighborhoods in Springfield. The closest comparables inside the same city are Upper Worthington Historic District and Winchester Square Historic District.

For a specific building, read the per-tract breakdown below rather than the 7.3 headline, because the internal range is too wide to average safely. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.