Downtown Springfield Railroad District Eviction Risk: Elevated

Annualized rent equals 51% of average household income of $15,717, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. The poverty rate is 59%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. At $665 a month, rents run 42% under what the rest of Springfield commands.

This is renter territory: 97% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 28.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10.

The severe-burden share is 25%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Disability prevalence runs 50.2% against 31.5% nationally. Against the Hampden County average of 5.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.1 points.

Cost burden runs 56% here against 46.5% across Hampden County. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.5/10. Nationally it ranks #8,653 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.9/10. Statewide the MA average is 6.2, so this tract runs 1.7 points hotter.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.