Fay Street Historic District Eviction Risk: High

Against a Worcester baseline of 32.0%, 41% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. 18% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.

The poverty rate is 23%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Pulling the other way is supply constraint, at 2.6/10. Court records for this tract carry 38 eviction filings.

SNAP participation is 26.3% of households versus 15.2% nationally. Running hot is eviction-process difficulty at 7/10. Filing activity peaked in 2015 at 5.2% of renter households.

Sitting well above the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength at 7/10. Among the 17 mapped neighborhoods of Worcester, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third.

Judgments average 1.4% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. For a like-for-like read, Main South and Crown Hill score within a fraction of it. Social vulnerability runs high at 7.7/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

The area figure travels well to individual addresses here, though the per-tract table below still carries the detail. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.