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Neighborhood · St. Paul, MN

Greater East Side Eviction Risk: Elevated

2 census tracts · pop 10,678 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 6.5/10 · range 5.6–7.8

Greater East Side takes in 2 census tracts of St. Paul, MN and houses 10,678 people. That produces an Eviction Risk Score of 6.5/10, Elevated tier. What pushes the score up most is rent-regulation exposure at 8.5/10.

39% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, higher than the St. Paul rate of 30.0%. The 2 tracts inside this boundary do not behave alike. Individual scores run 5.6 to 7.8, a 2.2-point gap wide enough that the area average misleads on any specific address.

Sitting well above the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength at 8.5/10. The severe-burden share is 18%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay.

At $1,493 a month, rents sit 17% over what the rest of St. Paul commands. Filings are well documented here: 483 across 2 observed tracts. Running hot is eviction-process difficulty at 7.5/10.

Filing activity peaked in 2012 at 10.9% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 4.8% in 2015, is well off that peak. That places it #16 of 23 neighborhoods in St. Paul.

For a like-for-like read, Shadow Falls and Snelling - Hamline score within a fraction of it. Social vulnerability runs high at 7.7/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $83,407.

31% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

For a specific building, read the per-tract breakdown below rather than the 6.5 headline, because the internal range is too wide to average safely. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score
6.5
Elevated
2 tracts · population-weighted
Greater East Side vs St. Paul How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
39.1% +30%
St. Paul: 30.0%
Average gross rent
$1,493 +17%
St. Paul: $1,281
Average HH income
$83,407 +9%
St. Paul: $76,411
Poverty rate
12.3% -22%
St. Paul: 15.8%
Renter share
30.6% -35%
St. Paul: 47.1%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Greater East Side and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 5.6–7.8

Why Greater East Side scores 6.5

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 4.3–4.3 across tracts
4.3
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.3–7.3 across tracts
7.3
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 9.0–9.0 across tracts
9.0
Rent control risk
39% of income on rent · Range 8.5–8.5 across tracts
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
31% renter households · Range 8.5–8.5 across tracts
8.5
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts
7.5
Economic stress
12.3% below poverty line · Range 1.3–5.5 across tracts
3.1
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 2.0–5.2 across tracts
3.8
Risk score comparison

Greater East Side vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Greater East Side score vs. parent city, state, U.S.6.5Greater East SideNeighborhood6.5Parent cityhost city4.5Stateavg in state5.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

2 tracts in Greater East Side

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
27123030704 7.8 4,505 43% $1,183
27123030702 5.6 6,173 36% $1,720
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 74

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 52%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 84%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 76%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 76%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Greater East Side

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 483Total filings (sum)
  • 6.74%Avg annual filing rate
  • 10.9%Peak year (2012)
  • 4.85%Latest filed (2015)

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 352Total filings 2020-21
  • 2.0Avg monthly observed
  • 2.1Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 0.77×Ratio to baseline

Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN).

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Greater East Side

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Greater East Side

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Greater East Side?

Greater East Side scores 6.5/10 (Elevated tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Greater East Side compare to St. Paul overall?

Greater East Side scores 0.0 points higher than St. Paul overall (6.5/10). Renters spend 39% of income on rent vs 30% citywide. Average rent: $1,493 vs $1,281.
Q3

What is the average rent in Greater East Side?

Average gross rent in Greater East Side is $1,493/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Greater East Side residents are renters?

31% of Greater East Side households are renter-occupied (vs 47% in St. Paul). The neighborhood has 10,678 residents.
Q5

Is Greater East Side a high social-vulnerability area?

Greater East Side sits in the 74th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Greater East Side have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Greater East Side is census tract 27123030704 (score 7.8/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 5.6 to 7.8, a spread of 2.2 points.
Q7

How safe is Greater East Side for landlords?

Greater East Side carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (6.5/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to St. Paul as a whole (6.5/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Greater East Side?

Greater East Side has 10,893 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (31.5%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (30.5%), Black (non-Hispanic) (18.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Greater East Side

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside St. Paul

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Greater East Side.

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