Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #32,735 of 84,120 nationally
McKinley Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Louis
Tract 29510123300 · St. Louis city, MO · pop 3,089 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
For landlords sizing up the McKinley Heights neighborhood of St. Louis, census tract 29510123300 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of 5.9/10. It lands near the 71st percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
45% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 22% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,167 a month against an average household income of $65,139 a year, roughly 21% of income at the averages. About 55% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 45%
Tract context
Occupied units1,517
Renter share54.8%
SVI overall0.38
Poverty rate17.4%
Median income$65,139
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
34
th percentile
Low
Within county
35
th percentile
Low
Within state
67
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Louis and the region
Centroid at 38.6056, -90.2169 · click any tract to drill in
Why McKinley Heights scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Louis
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.3
State political climate
Missouri legislature & governorship
2.1
Economic stress
17.4% poverty · this tract
4.3
Supply constraint
$1,167 rent vs county FMR
4.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Louis
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Louis
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Louis
5.0
How McKinley Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 38
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 67%Socioeconomic
- 21%Household composition
- 59%Racial/ethnic minority
- 14%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 12%Grade C
- 88%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 558Total filings over 13 yrs
- 5.42%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.8%Peak (2007)
- 25Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 55% over the past 13 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 160Total filings 2020-21
- 2.1Avg monthly (observed)
- 2.5Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.85×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Southwest Oregon, OR as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.8%Housing insecurity
- 9.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.1%Food insecurity
- 9.4%SNAP enrollment
- 8.2%Transit barriers
- 6.7%No health insurance
- 17.7%Frequent mental distress
- 26.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in McKinley Heights
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 5.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from St. Louis eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the St. Louis City County average of 5.8 and above the Missouri statewide average of 4.8. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
During 2020 and 2021, eviction filings here ran at about 0.85x the pre-COVID monthly baseline, a little under the pre-pandemic norm.
The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 38th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 29510123300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 29510123300?
Census tract 29510123300 in the McKinley Heights neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 29510123300?
Median gross rent is $1,167/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 29510123300?
17.4% of residents in tract 29510123300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,089.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 29510123300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 38th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 21th, minority 59th, housing 14th.
Q5
Is tract 29510123300 considered part of McKinley Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 29510123300 fall within McKinley Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 29510123300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 558 eviction filings across 13 validated years in tract 29510123300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.42% of renter households, peaking at 8.8% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 29510123300 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.85× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Southwest Oregon eviction laws, OR), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 29510123300 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 29510123300 compare to St. Louis overall?
Tract 29510123300 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of St. Louis at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Louis eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 29510123300 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 88% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Louis
Top eight tracts in St. Louis ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MO
Midtown
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Old North Saint Louis
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Mount Pleasant
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Carr Square
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
JeffVanderLou
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
College Hill
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Wells Goodfellow
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Columbus Square
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Related