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Arnold, Missouri eviction risk overview
City brief · 20,956 residents

Arnold, MO Eviction Risk: MODERATE

Jefferson County · Population 20,956

In 2026
Risk score
4
MODERATE

90th percentile, Missouri.

50-yr Eviction Risk Score history

1976 to 2026 · climbing fast since 2010

Min1.9 Average3.0 Now4
10 5 1976 · score 2.5 1977 · score 2.5 1978 · score 2.5 1979 · score 2.5 1980 · score 2.3 1981 · score 2.3 1982 · score 2.4 1983 · score 2.3 1984 · score 1.9 1985 · score 2.0 1986 · score 2.0 1987 · score 2.0 1988 · score 2.5 1989 · score 2.5 1990 · score 2.6 1991 · score 2.6 1992 · score 3.1 1993 · score 3.1 1994 · score 3.1 1995 · score 3.2 1996 · score 3.1 1997 · score 3.1 1998 · score 3.1 1999 · score 3.2 2000 · score 2.3 2001 · score 2.4 2002 · score 2.5 2003 · score 2.5 2004 · score 2.5 2005 · score 2.6 2006 · score 2.7 2007 · score 2.7 2008 · score 3.2 2009 · score 3.2 2010 · score 3.3 2011 · score 3.4 2012 · score 3.0 2013 · score 3.1 2014 · score 3.2 2015 · score 3.2 2016 · score 3.2 2017 · score 3.3 2018 · score 3.4 2019 · score 3.6 2020 · score 4.2 2021 · score 4.2 2022 · score 4.2 2023 · score 4.2 2024 · score 4.1 2025 · score 5.3 2026 · score 4.0

Key metrics

Time machine

Scrub 50 years

2026
● LIVE · today ◀ REPLAY · historical

Nine-axis profile

9-axis profile · today

Shape of the risk surface

1 landlord · 10 tenant
Local 6.6 Regional 6.6 State 2.1 Economic 5.1 Supply 5.7 Rent Control 4.0 Eviction 2.3 Tenant 4.7 Housing 4.2 4 MODERATE
Sub-scores · with sparkline

Where the score comes from

1 → 10 scale
  1. Local political climate
    GOP margin +36.7% (2024)
    6.6
  2. Regional political climate
    County-weighted neighbor mix
    6.6
  3. State political climate
    Missouri legislature & governorship
    2.1
  4. Economic stress
    7.7% poverty · 4.2% unemp.
    5.1
  5. Supply constraint
    $1,112 average · 20.2% renters
    5.7
  6. Rent Control risk
    26.3% of income on rent
    4.0
  7. Eviction process difficulty
    38 days filing → judgment
    2.3
  8. Tenant organizing strength
    20.2% renters
    4.7
  9. Housing court bias
    County bench composition
    4.2
Geographic context

Risk heat across Arnold and the region

Click any city to see its score

How Arnold compares

Risk score vs. peers, county, state, and the U.S.
Rank in Jefferson County
Very High
#3 of 23 cities
Rank in county, 91st percentileBottomTop
#3 of 23 cities in Jefferson County for landlord eviction risk.
Rank in Missouri
High
#113 of 1,082 cities
Rank in state, 90th percentileBottomTop
#113 of 1,082 cities in Missouri for landlord eviction risk.
vs. county · state · U.S.
Arnold risk score vs. county / state / U.S.Arnold: 4.04.0ArnoldThis cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.25.2U.S.national avg
Score story

Six-stop tour of the risk profile

  1. 4
    / 10 · MODERATE
    The verdict

    A Moderate-tier market.

    Composite 4/10. Mid-range market; standard documentation usually wins. The 50-year curve shows a slow, steady climb.

    50-yr trend+1.5 over 50 yr
    197620012026

    Steady ratchet · no large swings

  2. 38d
    Typical timeline
    The money

    What renting (and evicting) looks like.

    Rent published at $1,112/mo. A contested eviction takes 38 days and costs $1,099-$3,787 per case.

    50-yr trendCalendar drag rising since '15
    197620012026

    Court-clerk data lands in the next release.

  3. 20.2%
    Renters
    The renters

    Who you'll be renting to.

    Out of 20,956 residents, 20.2% rent. 26% are spending 30%+ income on rent, 7.7% below the poverty line.

    50-yr trendRenter share rising
    197620012026

    ACS 1970-present · once the migration overlay is in.

  4. 6.6
    Local + regional
    The politics

    Mid-range climate. Not a coastal market.

    Local & regional political climate score 6.6 and 6.6 (GOP margin +36.7% (2024)). State climate at 2.1, a mid-range statehouse.

    50-yr trendTracks county vote margin
    197620012026

    Built on 50-yr presidential margins back to 1976.

  5. 2.1
    State politics
    The process

    Moderate calendar, moderate friction.

    State political climate 2.1/10 sets the legislative ceiling for landlord remedies, and it shows up in the process. Eviction process difficulty reads 2.3, housing court bias 4.2, rent-control risk 4. Standard process speed for the state.

    50-yr trendProcess difficulty +-2.7 since '00
    197620012026

    Court-clerk data lands in the next release.

  6. 5.1
    Economic stress
    The stress

    Economic pressure is the background risk.

    Economic stress: 5.1. Supply constraint: 5.7. The numbers behind those: 7.7% poverty, 4.2% unemployment, 26% of income on rent.

    50-yr trendTwo visible dips · '08 + COVID
    197620012026

    Mirrors BLS unemployment series.

US eviction landscape · timeline × all-in cost

Arnold sits in the quick & cheap quadrant

Bubble size = population · color = risk score
QUICK BUT COSTLY fast docket · high all-in loss SLOW & EXPENSIVE long calendar · high all-in loss QUICK & CHEAP fast docket · low all-in loss SLOW BUT CHEAP long calendar · low all-in loss 30d 50d 75d 100d 150d 200d 300d 450d $2.0k $3.0k $5.0k $7.5k $10k $15k $20k $30k EVICTION TIMELINE (DAYS) → ↑ ALL-IN COST (LOG SCALE) St. Louis, MO · 43d · ~$2.4k all-in ($56/day) · score 5.4 St. Louis O'Fallon, MO · 37d · ~$2.2k all-in ($60/day) · score 3.7 O'Fallon St. Charles, MO · 36d · ~$2.5k all-in ($68/day) · score 3.3 St. Charles St. Peters, MO · 38d · ~$2.2k all-in ($57/day) · score 3.1 St. Peters Florissant, MO · 41d · ~$2.5k all-in ($61/day) · score 4.7 Florissant Kansas City, MO · 40d · ~$2.5k all-in ($63/day) · score 4.7 Kansas City Springfield, MO · 38d · ~$3.8k all-in ($99/day) · score 2.8 Springfield Columbia, MO · 42d · ~$4.4k all-in ($104/day) · score 3.5 Columbia Independence, MO · 43d · ~$2.3k all-in ($52/day) · score 5.3 Independence Lee's Summit, MO · 41d · ~$2.4k all-in ($59/day) · score 5.2 Lee's Summit Houston, TX · 24d · ~$2.5k all-in ($103/day) · score 2.7 Houston Phoenix, AZ · 38d · ~$3.3k all-in ($86/day) · score 3.9 Phoenix Memphis, TN · 31d · ~$2.0k all-in ($66/day) · score 4.6 Memphis Atlanta, GA · 40d · ~$2.8k all-in ($69/day) · score 5.5 Atlanta Boston, MA · 187d · ~$20.3k all-in ($109/day) · score 6.8 Boston Chicago, IL · 109d · ~$9.0k all-in ($82/day) · score 6.3 Chicago New York, NY · 417d · ~$29.5k all-in ($71/day) · score 9.8 New York Seattle, WA · 162d · ~$12.7k all-in ($79/day) · score 6.2 Seattle Arnold
Arnold · 38d · ~$2.4k all-in ($64/day) · score 4 National average: 58d · $4.6k all-in Hover any bubble for stats · click to open Color: 0-4   4-7   7-10
00Overview

About eviction risk in Arnold, MO

Landlording in Arnold, Missouri, presents a manageable operating environment for documented landlords. The Eviction Risk Score is 4/10 (MODERATE tier), drawn from the nine sub-axes shown above, covering rent-control exposure, eviction-process difficulty, housing-court bias, tenant-organizing strength, supply constraint, economic stress, and local, regional, and state political climate. This is not a quick-fix market: it's a Mid-tier market where lease drafting, screening discipline, and well-documented notices materially change outcomes.

Arnold is a city of 20,956 residents where 20.2% of occupied units are renter-occupied, and the typical renter spends 26.3% of income on rent. At an average rent of $1,112/month, the typical renter household here spends more than the federal 30% threshold on housing, a leading indicator of payment volatility and a precondition for the kinds of tenant defenses that show up most often in housing court.

01Process

How Arnold eviction process actually works

Eviction process difficulty here reads 2.3/10, a number that combines statutory complexity (notice categories, just-cause rules, mandatory pre-filing disclosures) with operational realities (court calendar length and clerk responsiveness). The typical contested filing in Arnold closes 38 days after the initial notice. For non-payment of rent the first step is a properly-formatted, properly-served pay-or-quit notice; for material lease breaches it's a cure-or-quit; for tenancies under just-cause protection an at-fault grounds notice (or a no-fault notice with statutory relocation assistance) is required.

The slow part of Arnold's timeline is usually the calendar, not the motion practice. Housing court bias scores 4.2/10 here, meaning judges read borderline procedural defects in the tenant's favor more often than the national norm. The practical implication: every notice and every proof of service needs to be airtight before it gets filed.

02Cost

What it costs (and how long it takes)

An all-in eviction in Arnold runs $1,099 to $3,787 per case once you account for filing fees, attorney time, lost rent during pendency, sheriff lockout, and unit turnover. That range is wide because the upper bound assumes a tenant answer plus motion practice, common when housing court bias is high. The lower bound assumes a default judgment after proper service.

For landlords running the numbers on holding costs vs. cash-for-keys: if your projected timeline times your monthly rent already exceeds the high-end cost number, cash-for-keys at 1-2 months' rent is typically the economically rational choice. With 38 days of typical timeline and $1,112/month in lost rent, that crossover happens fast here.

03Operations

Security deposits, screening, and lease terms

Tenant organizing strength scores 4.7/10 in Arnold, and the city has limited rent control exposure (4/10). Operations practice that survives audit in this environment looks like:

  • Screening discipline. Document income (verified at 2.5 to 3x rent), credit (with a clear minimum), and prior-tenancy reference checks, but do not screen on protected categories or source-of-income where banned. Keep a written, consistent screening criteria document for every applicant.
  • Lease specificity. Use a state-specific lease that names every term clearly: rent due date, late fees within statutory caps, deposit handling, smoke and CO disclosure, lead paint disclosure (pre-1978 stock), and a clean attorney's-fees clause.
  • Security deposit handling. Itemize deductions within the statutory window. Photograph move-in/move-out condition. In Missouri, deposit cap and refund window are statute, so exceed them at your own risk.
  • Mid-tenancy documentation. Keep date-stamped records of every rent receipt, every habitability request, every notice served. The day you need them in court is too late to start.
04Strategy

What an everyday landlord should actually do here

If you own one to four units in Arnold: hire a property manager who knows the local court. The pricing differential between self-managing and hiring out is small relative to the cost of one botched eviction in a MODERATE tier market. If you own five or more: build relationships with a local landlord-side attorney before you need one, since retainer fees are negligible compared to emergency-rate billing when an eviction is already moving.

The avoidable mistakes here are all upstream of the filing: weak screening, an informal lease, sloppy rent receipts, and notice templates pulled off the internet that don't match Missouri's statutory language. Fix those four, and most cases settle or default. Skip them, and a $3,787 all-in fight is the realistic worst case.

04bPractical traps

Local traps to avoid in Arnold

Trap · 4.2/10
For landlords, the 5.3/10 score is most actionable when combined with St. Louis County's specific court behavior. Housing-court bias sub-score: 4.2/10. Use proactive screening and documented notices.
04Eviction filings

Live filings tracking · Eviction Lab

Princeton Eviction Lab Tracking System, state-level (no county tracker available). Last update 2026-05-01.

In the most recent month, 3,285 eviction cases were filed across the tracker's coverage area, 0.88× the historical baseline (below baseline). Past 12 months: 44,239 filings. Pandemic-era cumulative: 244,075.

  • 3,285Past month
  • 44,239Past 12 months
  • 0.88×vs baseline (past mo)
  • 18.2%Repeat-tenant filings
Notice requirement: at least ten days notice (for nonpayment of rent cases, though in other cases more). Filing fee: minimum filing fee of $33.
Last 36 months of filings 2023-05-01 - 2026-04-01
Monthly eviction filings (Eviction Lab tracker)2023-05-01: 4,308 filings (1.04× hist)2023-06-01: 4,368 filings (1.09× hist)2023-07-01: 4,067 filings (0.98× hist)2023-08-01: 4,271 filings (1.01× hist)2023-09-01: 4,134 filings (1.03× hist)2023-10-01: 4,557 filings (1.07× hist)2023-11-01: 3,861 filings (1.05× hist)2023-12-01: 3,321 filings (0.95× hist)2024-01-01: 4,075 filings (1.04× hist)2024-02-01: 3,910 filings (0.99× hist)2024-03-01: 3,376 filings (0.89× hist)2024-04-01: 3,563 filings (0.96× hist)2024-05-01: 3,991 filings (0.96× hist)2024-06-01: 3,667 filings (0.91× hist)2024-07-01: 4,247 filings (1.02× hist)2024-08-01: 4,204 filings (0.99× hist)2024-09-01: 3,903 filings (0.97× hist)2024-10-01: 3,988 filings (0.93× hist)2024-11-01: 3,506 filings (0.95× hist)2024-12-01: 3,675 filings (1.05× hist)2025-01-01: 4,255 filings (1.09× hist)2025-02-01: 3,552 filings (0.91× hist)2025-03-01: 3,234 filings (0.85× hist)2025-04-01: 3,700 filings (1.00× hist)2025-05-01: 3,658 filings (0.88× hist)2025-06-01: 3,488 filings (0.87× hist)2025-07-01: 4,442 filings (1.07× hist)2025-08-01: 3,869 filings (0.91× hist)2025-09-01: 3,990 filings (0.99× hist)2025-10-01: 3,771 filings (0.88× hist)2025-11-01: 3,265 filings (0.89× hist)2025-12-01: 3,493 filings (1.00× hist)2026-01-01: 3,667 filings (0.94× hist)2026-02-01: 3,715 filings (0.96× hist)2026-03-01: 3,596 filings (0.95× hist)2026-04-01: 3,285 filings (0.88× hist)
Filings dropped 10% over the past 12 months.
05FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Q1

How many days does a Arnold tenant get to cure non-payment?

5 days. Missouri law (RSMo § 441 (Landlord and Tenant)) sets a 5-day pay-or-quit notice before any unlawful-detainer filing. If the tenant pays in full inside the cure window, the notice is satisfied and the landlord cannot proceed on that delinquency.

Q2

What does Missouri allow for security deposits?

2.00 months of rent under Missouri statute. Return is due within 30 days of move-out with an itemized deduction statement. Late or unitemized returns typically expose the landlord to statutory damages, often double the deposit plus the tenant's attorney fees.

Q3

Is Missouri a just-cause state?

Not at the state level. Missouri doesn't impose statewide just-cause. Some Missouri cities and counties do, though, so check Arnold's local ordinances before drafting a no-cause notice.

Q4

Is source of income protected in Arnold?

Not at the state level. Missouri doesn't have statewide source-of-income protection, though some cities and counties do. Verify Arnold's local code before adopting any no-voucher policy.

Q5

What does an eviction cost in Arnold?

Typical all-in: $1,099 to $3,787, covering filing, service, attorney representation, sheriff or constable lockout, and lost rent during the case. Cash-for-keys at $1,000-$3,000 routinely outperforms full-process economics when the tenant will negotiate.

Q6

How fast can I evict a tenant in Arnold?

Uncontested cases run 21-45 days from notice service to physical lockout. Contested cases, usually involving habitability counterclaims, retaliation defenses, or notice-defect attacks, extend by 60-180 days.

Q7

Can I lock out a tenant in Arnold without going to court?

No. Self-help eviction, changing locks, shutting off utilities, removing belongings, is illegal in Missouri and every other state. Statutory damages typically run $1,000-$10,000 per incident plus the tenant's attorney fees. The fact that the tenant hasn't paid in months does not change this; you still go through court.

More Missouri coverage: the Missouri eviction process, the cost breakdown, deposit rules, and the tenant-protections guide. County-level data lives at the St. Louis County page. Scoring details on the methodology page.

06Score

What this score means for landlords2

A 4/10 places Arnold in the 90th percentile of Missouri cities on the Eviction Risk Score index. The score is the average of the nine sub-axes, all calibrated on a national 1 to 10 scale where 1 is most landlord-friendly and 10 is most tenant-protective. The 50-year reconstruction shows this score has climbed steadily since 1976, a structural drift driven by court-calendar growth, rent-control adoption, and the rise of tenant-side legal aid. The trajectory matters more than the snapshot: the score is the climate, not the weather.