Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #18,163 of 84,120 nationally
Varsity neighborhood Eviction Risk: Elevated , University City
Tract 29189214100 · St. Louis County, MO · pop 1,061 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
29189214100 is a census tract in the Varsity neighborhood area of Pagedale, MO. It scores 6/10 for landlords. It is home to 1,061 residents. The severe-burden share is 68%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 37%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 51%
Tract context
Occupied units485
Renter share48.7%
SVI overall0.48
Poverty rate31.4%
Median income$31,281
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
98
th percentile
Very High
Within state
100
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across University City and the region
Centroid at 38.6771, -90.3045 · click any tract to drill in
Why Varsity neighborhood scores 6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from University City
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.2
State political climate
Missouri legislature & governorship
2.1
Economic stress
31.4% poverty · this tract
7.9
Supply constraint
$984 rent vs county FMR
3.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from University City
9.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from University City
9.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from University City
9.3
How Varsity neighborhood compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 48
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 74%Socioeconomic
- 71%Household composition
- 100%Racial/ethnic minority
- 2%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 23%Grade B
- 47%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 301Total filings over 8 yrs
- 18.49%Avg annual filing rate
- 26.9%Peak (2012)
- 49Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 58% over the past 8 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 155Total filings 2020-21
- 2.0Avg monthly (observed)
- 3.2Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.64×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Southwest Oregon, OR as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Varsity neighborhood. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 33.9%Housing insecurity
- 28.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 40.8%Food insecurity
- 41.2%SNAP enrollment
- 21.5%Transit barriers
- 13.6%No health insurance
- 21.7%Frequent mental distress
- 48.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Varsity neighborhood
76% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the St. Louis County average of 42.0%. SNAP participation runs 41.2% against 15.2% nationally. The dominant input is rent-regulation exposure at 9.5/10.
On the high side, housing-court posture reads 9.3/10. Set annual rent against average income of $31,281 and the ratio lands at 38%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.
Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.2/10. Against the St. Louis County average of 4.0, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.0 points. Disability prevalence runs 48.7% against 31.5% nationally.
The poverty rate is 31%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. The filing record is not thin: 301 evictions over 8 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2012 at 26.9% of renter households.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 18.5% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 78% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 29189214100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 29189214100?
Census tract 29189214100 in the Varsity neighborhood neighborhood scores 6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 29189214100?
Median gross rent is $984/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 76% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 29189214100?
31.4% of residents in tract 29189214100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,061.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 29189214100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 48th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 74th, household 71th, minority 100th, housing 2th.
Q5
Is tract 29189214100 considered part of Varsity neighborhood?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 29189214100 fall within Varsity neighborhood (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 29189214100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 301 eviction filings across 8 validated years in tract 29189214100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 18.49% of renter households, peaking at 26.9% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 29189214100 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.64× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Southwest Oregon eviction laws, OR), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 29189214100 struggle to pay rent?
About 33.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 28.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 29189214100 compare to University City overall?
Tract 29189214100 scores 6/10, higher than the parent city of University City at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from University City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 29189214100 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in University City
Top eight tracts in University City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related
Explore the geography around tract 29189214100
Parent city ↑
University City
3.4 / 10
Parent county ↑
St. Louis County
Parent state ↑
Missouri
Sibling tract →
Varsity neighborhood
4.8 / 10
Sibling tract →
Varsity neighborhood
4.8 / 10
Sibling tract →
Varsity neighborhood
4.6 / 10
Methodology
How the score is built
Interactive map
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