The Village at Chapel Hill Eviction Risk: Moderate

47% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, well above the Fairview rate of 34.1%. Pulling the other way is economic stress, at 1/10.

Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 4.5 to 6.9, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. The severe-burden share is 18%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. The voucher gap is 18.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears.

On the high side is rent-regulation exposure at 7.2/10. Court records carry 156 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts.

CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 6.3% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. Food insecurity affects 6.3% of adults, 11.5 points below the national rate.

The worst year on record was 2018, when filings touched 26.0% of renter households. Judgments average 0.1% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order.

Only 19% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin here; price renewals off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Rent takes 20% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market. Poverty sits at 1%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 2.4 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.