Five Points Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. What pushes it up most is local political climate at 8/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10. Food insecurity runs 30.8% against 17.8% nationally.

The poverty rate is 25%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. SNAP participation runs 27.0% against 15.2% nationally.

On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10. Average gross rent is $954, 9% below the Buffalo average.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. On the national scale it lands near the 96th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.6 points hotter.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. 42% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.