Neighborhood · Ranked #3,082 of 84,120 nationally

East Side Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

Tract 36029002802 · Erie County, NY · pop 1,070 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

36029002802 is a census tract in the East Side area of Buffalo, NY. It scores 9.3/10 for landlords. It is home to 1,070 residents. 73% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Erie County average of 44.6%.

Risk score

9.3

High

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 53% Stable renters 20% Owners 27%

Tract context

Occupied units409

Renter share72.4%

SVI overall0.95

Poverty rate36.9%

Median income$27,313

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.9020, -78.8207 · click any tract to drill in

Why East Side scores 9.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Buffalo

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

New York legislature & governorship

7.3

Economic stress

36.9% poverty · this tract

9.2

Supply constraint

$939 rent vs county FMR

3.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

How East Side compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 95

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

89%Socioeconomic
96%Household composition
88%Racial/ethnic minority
81%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
85%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within East Side. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

33.8%Housing insecurity
25.1%Utility-shutoff threat
45.3%Food insecurity
49.0%SNAP enrollment
22.5%Transit barriers
13.0%No health insurance
21.7%Frequent mental distress
38.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in East Side

SNAP participation runs 49.0% against 15.2% nationally. It sits 2.5 points above the Erie County average of 6.8. The severe-burden share is 29%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

The dominant input is economic stress at 9.2/10. Set annual rent against average income of $27,313 and the ratio lands at 41%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. The poverty rate is 37%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

This is renter territory: 72% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 25.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. On the high side, local political climate reads 8/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10. Average gross rent is $939, 10% below the Buffalo average.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029002802

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029002802?

Census tract 36029002802 in the East Side neighborhood scores 9.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 36029002802?

Median gross rent is $939/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 73% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029002802?

36.9% of residents in tract 36029002802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,070.

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029002802?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 95th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 89th, household 96th, minority 88th, housing 81th.

Is tract 36029002802 considered part of East Side?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029002802 fall within East Side (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 36029002802 struggle to pay rent?

About 33.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 25.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 36029002802 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029002802 scores 9.3/10, higher than the parent city of Buffalo at 7.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 36029002802 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.