Neighborhood · Ranked #798 of 84,120 nationally

East Side Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

Tract 36029002802 · Erie County, NY · pop 1,070 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

Eviction risk in the East Side area of Buffalo centers on tract 36029002802, which scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier) and is home to 1,070 residents. On the national scale it ranks #2,311 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 73% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 29% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $939 monthly, set against $27,313 in average yearly household income, roughly 41% of income at the averages. About 72% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

8.7

High

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 53% Stable renters 20% Owners 27%

Tract context

Occupied units409

Renter share72.4%

SVI overall0.95

Poverty rate36.9%

Median income$27,313

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.9020, -78.8207 · click any tract to drill in

Why East Side scores 8.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Buffalo

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

New York legislature & governorship

7.3

Economic stress

36.9% poverty · this tract

9.2

Supply constraint

$939 rent vs county FMR

3.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

How East Side compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 95

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

89%Socioeconomic
96%Household composition
88%Racial/ethnic minority
81%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
85%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within East Side. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

33.8%Housing insecurity
25.1%Utility-shutoff threat
45.3%Food insecurity
49.0%SNAP enrollment
22.5%Transit barriers
13.0%No health insurance
21.7%Frequent mental distress
38.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in East Side

The heaviest input here is economic stress at 9.2/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Erie County average of 6.1 and above the New York statewide average of 6.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Black and Asian and ranks around the 95th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029002802

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029002802?

Census tract 36029002802 in the East Side neighborhood scores 8.7/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 36029002802?

Median gross rent is $939/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 73% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029002802?

36.9% of residents in tract 36029002802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,070.

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029002802?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 95th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 89th, household 96th, minority 88th, housing 81th.

Is tract 36029002802 considered part of East Side?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029002802 fall within East Side (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 36029002802 struggle to pay rent?

About 33.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 25.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 36029002802 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029002802 scores 8.7/10, lower than the parent city of Buffalo at 9.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 36029002802 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.