Neighborhood · Ranked #13,119 of 84,120 nationally

Heather Downs Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo

Tract 39095006802 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,339 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Census tract 39095006802 runs through the Heather Downs area of Toledo. With 2,339 residents, it scores 6.1/10 for landlords. It lands near the 77th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 40% of renter households, a severe level, and 19% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $723 a month while the average household earns $24,647 a year, roughly 35% of income at the averages. Renters make up 81% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

5.9

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 32% Stable renters 48% Owners 20%

Tract context

Occupied units1,469

Renter share80.9%

SVI overall0.75

Poverty rate44.6%

Median income$24,647

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Toledo and the region

Centroid at 41.6140, -83.6162 · click any tract to drill in

Why Heather Downs scores 5.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Toledo

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.8

State political climate

Ohio legislature & governorship

2.4

Economic stress

44.6% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$723 rent vs county FMR

1.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Toledo

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Toledo

4.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Toledo

4.0

How Heather Downs compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 75

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

93%Socioeconomic
9%Household composition
63%Racial/ethnic minority
79%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
19%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Heather Downs. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

23.3%Housing insecurity
19.7%Utility-shutoff threat
33.6%Food insecurity
34.8%SNAP enrollment
17.3%Transit barriers
12.5%No health insurance
22.0%Frequent mental distress
40.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Heather Downs

The score leans hardest on economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Toledo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Lucas County average of 5.5 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 23.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 19.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 39095006802

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095006802?

Census tract 39095006802 in the Heather Downs neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 39095006802?

Median gross rent is $723/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 39095006802?

44.6% of residents in tract 39095006802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,339.

How socially vulnerable is tract 39095006802?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 75th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 93th, household 9th, minority 63th, housing 79th.

Is tract 39095006802 considered part of Heather Downs?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095006802 fall within Heather Downs (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 39095006802 struggle to pay rent?

About 23.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 19.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 39095006802 compare to Toledo overall?

Tract 39095006802 scores 5.9/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 39095006802 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Toledo

Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.