Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Middle Grounds Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo
Tract 39095010300 · Lucas County, OH · pop 1,485 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 39095010300 covers part of the Middle Grounds area of Toledo, OH, and scores 5.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 1,485. The score leans hardest on economic stress at 10/10.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23%
Stable renters 26%
Owners 51%
Tract context
Occupied units560
Renter share48.9%
SVI overall0.94
Poverty rate49.6%
Median income$32,308
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
59
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
89
th percentile
High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Toledo and the region
Centroid at 41.6372, -83.5434 · click any tract to drill in
Why Middle Grounds scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
49.6% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$848 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0
How Middle Grounds compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 94
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 96%Socioeconomic
- 76%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 89%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 42%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 781Total filings over 15 yrs
- 11.01%Avg annual filing rate
- 14.2%Peak (2003)
- 26Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 68% over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Middle Grounds. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 29.6%Housing insecurity
- 23.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 41.7%Food insecurity
- 41.9%SNAP enrollment
- 20.1%Transit barriers
- 22.5%No health insurance
- 23.5%Frequent mental distress
- 45.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Middle Grounds
SNAP participation runs 41.9% against 15.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 50%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Food insecurity runs 41.7% against 17.8% nationally.
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. The severe-burden share is 22%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Against the Lucas County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points. 47% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Lucas County average of 41.3%.
The filing record is not thin: 781 evictions over 15 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2003, when 14.2% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Toledo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
In a typical year about 11.0% of renter households face a filing.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 39095010300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095010300?
Census tract 39095010300 in the Middle Grounds neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39095010300?
Median gross rent is $848/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39095010300?
49.6% of residents in tract 39095010300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,485.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39095010300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 94th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 96th, household 76th, minority 74th, housing 89th.
Q5
Is tract 39095010300 considered part of Middle Grounds?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095010300 fall within Middle Grounds (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095010300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 781 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095010300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.01% of renter households, peaking at 14.2% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39095010300 struggle to pay rent?
About 29.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 23.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39095010300 compare to Toledo overall?
Tract 39095010300 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39095010300 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Toledo
Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
Cumberland Street Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Bush Street Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Heather Downs
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Middle Grounds
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Northlawn
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Northriver
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
ONYX
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
39095005300
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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